NORTH AMERICAN OPENING WEEKEND PREDICTIONS:
- Rogue One: A Star Wars Story – Buena Vista – December 16th, 2016 – $160-165 million
- Assassin’s Creed – Fox – December 21st, 2016 – $20-25 million
- Passengers – Sony/Columbia – December 21st, 2016 – $25-30 million
- Sing – Universal – December 21st, 2016 – $30-35 million
It’s really tough to predict the opening weekend total for Rogue One. The thing is, Star Wars fans, like me, can really have a huge influence here. Some fans may go three to eight times in one weekend if it’s a good movie. Other than Rogue One, I think Sing is the one that could surprise here. It’s a kids movie in December, it certainly should do well.
I don’t think Passengers has had a lot of great trailers. In fact, I still think it has yet to give us just a good trailer. Still, Lawrence and Pratt should make a lot of people take a chance on the film. Finally, I don’t really know what to expect from Assassin’s Creed. I don’t think a lot of gamers that are fans of that franchise will be jumping up and down at the chance of seeing it. I’m still excited for Assassin’s Creed (mainly because of Fassbender), but it’s tough to predict how well it will do.
- Doctor Strange – Buena Vista – November 4th, 2016 – $85 million
- Trolls – Fox – November 4th, 2016 – $46 million
- Hacksaw Ridge – Lionsgate – November 4th, 2016 – $15 million
- Arrival – Paramount – November 11th, 2016 – $24 million
- Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them – Warner Bros. – November 18th, 2016 – $74 million
- Moana – Buena Vista – November 23rd, 2016 – $56 million
Green means that it made more money than I predicted. Red means that it made less. Blue means that I got the prediction right.
November was a pretty good month for major movies. Doctor Strange, Moana, and Trolls all overperformed. I was a little bit surprised that Fantastic Beasts made less than Doctor Strange in its opening weekend, but I got the opening weekend prediction right for Fantastic Beasts. I got my Hacksaw Ridge prediction right, but I do wish it had opened with a little bit more. Arrival landed just below my prediction, but it still did really well.
– Jeffrey Rex