MAJOR RELEASES’ OPENING WEEKEND PREDICTIONS:
- Pride and Prejudice and Zombies – Sony / Screen Gems – February 5th, 2016 – $10-15 million
- Hail, Caesar! – Universal – February 5th, 2016 – $16-23 million
- Deadpool – Fox – February 12th, 2016 – $65-85 million
- Zoolander 2 – Paramount – February 12th, 2016 – $20-30 million
- Eddie The Eagle – Fox – February 26th, 2016 – $8-14 million
- Gods of Egypt – Lionsgate / Summit – February 26th, 2016 – $12-18 million
Which films listed above could blow past my own expectations?
The biggest wildcard for me here is Eddie The Eagle, I have no idea what to expect from it. Hugh Jackman is in it, so that could help it. But here’s the thing, I’m not sure people in America are that interested in a movie about a British skier. Hail, Caesar! looks like an Oscar-candidate, even though it isn’t eligible for the 88th Academy Awards, and I could see it get an Oscar-boost.
What box office total does Deadpool need to reach to get a sequel?
Now this is difficult. Deadpool is rated R, and that will most definitely impact the box office. You might’ve read about the change.org petition to make a PG-13 version ready for theaters, but Fox won’t do that for multiple reasons. You might argue that Deadpool is losing a chunk of the superhero audience by going rated R with it, but I’m not sure how much it’ll hurt it. Come on, guys. We’ve all seen a film in the theaters that we weren’t age appropriate for.
Now, back to the question at hand. The opening weekend record for an R-rated film is at $91 million for The Matrix Reloaded, I think Deadpool has a chance of beating it – but it’ll be tough. The biggest opening ever for a Fox-superhero film is at $102 million, so Fox shouldn’t expect that number. As for the worldwide box office total? Well, I think it’ll definitely get a sequel if it ends up between $350-400 million. Anything less than that and I fear that Fox will think it was a waste of time. You have to remember that the terrible X-Men Origins: Wolverine still made $373 million. However, I’m pretty sure that Fox made Deadpool for less than X-Men Origins, so that could help it.
What film will win February? Sound off in the comments.
I’m Jeffrey Rex