Box Office Predictions – April 2019

This month, it’s finally time to find out how the Avengers avenge those who were turned to dust in Infinity War. It’s time to see Zachary Levi in his Shazam-suit. April is all about superheroes and horror films. What’s going to win the month? Welcome back to Box Office Predictions.

SELECT NORTH AMERICAN OPENING WEEKEND PREDICTIONS – April 2019:

• Pet Sematary – Paramount – April 5th – $30 million
• Shazam! – WB/DC – April 5th – $70 million
• Hellboy – Lionsgate/Summit – April 12th – $15 million
• Avengers: Endgame – Disney/Marvel – April 26th – $260 million

I’ll start this month by running through two horror predictions. First up is the much-anticipated and, currently, well-reviewed Stephen King remake. Pet Sematary is hoping to replicate the success of A Quiet Place ($50m), which opened roughly a year ago, but I doubt it’ll go as well for it. It’ll likely open closer to the Elm Street-remake from 2010 ($32m).

Next up is the reboot of Hellboy, which frustratingly is without Guillermo del Toro in the director’s chair and Ron Perlman in red make-up. Okay, I’ll admit it, I’m still upset that we’re not getting a complete del Toro trilogy. I think the trailers for the new Hellboy have been disappointing and unexciting. They did not get me excited, and I’m not sure there is much of an audience for a del Toro-less Hellboy. A supposedly lower budget should help it, but it’ll likely still end up as the worst opening for the franchise.

It’s time to talk about superheroes. First up is DC’s Big, also known as Shazam! (don’t forget the exclamation mark!). All joking aside, I’m super excited about this film. The premise is genius, I really enjoyed Geoff Johns’ New 52 origin story for the character, and I really want Zachary Levi to succeed (I was a big fan of Chuck). I think this is going to be a huge hit and an audience favorite. Maybe my excitement for the film is getting in the way of a logical prediction, but, honestly, this optimistic prediction feels right.

Last but not least, the fourth Avengers film — the sequel to the monster-hit Infinity War — is also opening in April. Now, I’d love to say that it’s going to break records and then give a prediction that is through the roof, but I’m only willing to go $3m above Infinity War‘s opening. You see, I’m worried about the runtime. If the film is indeed 3+ hours long, it is unlikely that they’ll have time for as many showings in a day as for a normal Marvel movie. I may be wrong, who knows, but I’m sticking with my somewhat conservative prediction.

In this edition of the Box Office Report, it only seems right to take a look at the entire year thus far.

2019 – Biggest Opening Weekends, thus far: 

1. Captain Marvel – $153m
2. Us – $71m
3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World – $55m
4. Dumbo – $45m
5. Glass – $40m

Is it just me, or did the year in box office tallying not truly begin until Captain Marvel was released? It’s like the dust that had settled suddenly disappeared. It’s a film that I underestimated, and I don’t mind admitting that. I’m still shocked that it beat Wonder Woman‘s opening weekend, but that surprise pales in comparison to the fact that Captain Marvel had a better opening weekend than both Guardians of the Galaxy-films as well as a better opening weekend than all three of the Thor-films. Now that’s impressive.

Just as impressive, I’d argue, is the fact that Jordan Peele proved this year that he already has a massive following. Jordan Peele is already an event maker. Us‘ opening was the second biggest ever for a live-action original feature as well as the best ever opening for a live-action R-rated original horror film. On top of all of that, Us opened to more than twice as much as Get Out did.

We still don’t have the first member of the 2019 Billion Dollar Club, but, don’t you worry, it looks like the very first member is right around the corner. At the time of writing, Captain Marvel has made $992 million worldwide. Also, Avengers: Endgame is coming out in just a few weeks.

– Jeffrey Rex Bertelsen.