MAJOR RELEASES’ OPENING WEEKEND PREDICTIONS:
- Zootopia – Buena Vista / Walt Disney Animation Studios – March 4th, 2016 – $40-45 million
- 10 Cloverfield Lane – Paramount – March 11th, 2016 – $25-35 million
- The Brothers Grimsby – Sony / Columbia – March 11th, 2016 – $10-20 million
- The Divergent Series: Allegiant – Lionsgate – March 18th, 2016 – $40-45 million
- Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice – Warner Bros. – March 25th, 2016 – $160-180 million
Which films listed above could blow past my own expectations?
Well, I suspect that Zootopia will do really well, but It’ll probably be around my estimated figures. I have very low expectations for The Brothers Grimsby at the box office, seeing as I feel that American audience may have grown tired of Sascha Baron Cohen’s comedy shtick. The real wildcard here, though, is 10 Cloverfield Lane. I suspect that a lot of people really hold the original Cloverfield in high regard, and I would not be surprised to see the opening weekend be much, much higher than $25m.
What Batman v. Superman opening weekend total would be troubling for the DC Cinematic Universe?
I’ll start by saying this: Back at the beginning of the year, I had Dawn of Justice at about $200 million in its opening weekend… But in this edition of Box Office Predictions I’m downgrading my expectations to between $160m and $180m. I’m not exactly worried about the film, but I have been somewhat shocked by the sourly divisive feel of social media when you bring up this film.
However, my newly downgraded prediction wouldn’t be troubling for WB or DC, and, ultimately, the worldwide total will be much more important. But there is an opening weekend figure that would derail WB’s expectations. And, in my mind, that would be an opening at the size of Man of Steel, which ‘only’ opened to $116 million. A lot of studios would kill for such an opening, but it would mean that Dawn of Justice didn’t realign the DC Universe, and that it would make less than FOX’s R-rated Deadpool-experiment (based on opening weekend figures). For what it’s worth, though, I don’t think Dawn of Justice will have any trouble reaching a solid opening weekend figure… Unless Zack Snyder pulls a Josh Trank-esque Twitter-stunt.
What film will win March? Sound off in the comments.
I’m Jeffrey Rex