Box Office Predictions – Weekend of August 14, 2015

Box Office 2015

The following is a new weekly post on I’m Jeffrey Rex, wherein Jeffrey predicts the coming weekend numbers at the box office for North America.

Mission: Impossible remained on top of the North American box office for its second weekend. It managed to beat the extremely disappointing Fantastic Four. Now, can a spy-film and a music biopic take the Tom Cruise-led film down?

LAST WEEKEND’S NUMBERS

  1. Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation (-48.7%) – $28,502,372
  2. Fantastic Four (1st Wknd) – $25,685,737
  3. The Gift (1st Wknd) – $11,854,273
  4. Vacation (-39%) – $8,955,246
  5. Ant-Man (-38.2%) – $7,911,445

While Mission: Impossible made about as much as you would expect in its second weekend, we were treated to one of the most dramatic box office bombs in recent movie memory. Fantastic Four is a beloved Marvel Comics franchise, but following a ton of rumors and a review embargo for professional film critics, the 20th Century Fox film ultimately tanked. Its own director dismissed the film, reviewers panned it, and it was given a record-low cinemascore by the movie-going audience (C-).

Ant-Man managed to stay in the top five, while Minions was dealt somewhat of a blow due to the introduction of Shaun The Sheep. The Gift had a relatively strong opening, while Vacation managed to stay in the top five, beating out Ricki and the Flash as well as Trainwreck in the process.

WEEKEND PREDICTIONS

  1. Straight Outta Compton (1st Wknd) – $39m
  2. The Man From U.N.C.L.E. (1st Wknd) – $20m
  3. Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation – $17m
  4. Fantastic Four – $10m
  5. The Gift – $8m

Last weekend should be Ant-Man‘s last weekend in the top five in North America, and I doubt we’ll see Vacation or Minions pop up in the top five again either. Instead, we are introduced to the Henry Cavill and Alicia Vikander-led spy-flick The Man From U.N.C.L.E. and the biopic Straight Outta Compton.

I think Straight Outta Compton will take the weekend, at least with Kingsman: The Secret Service-like opening numbers (but probably more), while U.N.C.L.E. will come closer to what Focus or, at best, the Poltergeist remake made in its opening weekend.

Mission: Impossible should still be in the top three, but my guess is it’ll be below $20 million. Closing out the top five, I see The Gift staying strong, while Fantastic Four has one more weekend to convince people.

What do you predict for this weekend’s North American box office numbers? Am I way off? Sound off in the comments.

I’m Jeffrey Rex

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