Marvelous Monday #27 – Ant-Man Box Office Talk

I'm Jeffrey Rex' Marvelous Monday 27

Get it? Yeah that was a bad font-pun. Anyway, on this week’s Marvelous Monday I try to predict the full box office total of Ant-Man. What would be a success? What would be terrible? Let’s look at the numbers from the opening weekend in North America and the Marvel Cinematic Universe numbers.

So Ant-Man opened to $57 million in its first weekend in North America. A small number by Phase Two standards, but a solid opening for an origin story for Scott Lang, most people’s second favorite Ant-Man. Could it have been bigger? Yes. Should it have? Not much bigger.

We have to remember the position Ant-Man is in, not only is it set to battle Pixels, Vacation, and the latest entry in the Mission Impossible franchise in the coming weeks, but this weekend it had an intense fight with The Minions (which earned $50m). The new comedy Trainwreck also opened very strong, and thus Ant-Man’s opening weekend win is actually quite big. This is actually Marvel’s 12th consecutive first place opening weekend (12 out of 12).

This brings us to the rest of the Marvel Cinematic Universe. Now, Phase Two is by far the highest grossing of the two Marvel Phases – but Phase One is probably the best one to compare with, due to the number of origin stories in the first phase. So let’s look at the numbers.

PHASE ONE

  • Iron Man (2008) – Opening Weekend: $98m – N.A. Total: $318m – Total: $585m.
  • The Incredible Hulk (2008) – Opening Weekend: $55m – N.A. Total: $134m – Total: $263m.
  • Iron Man 2 (2010) – Opening Weekend: $128m – N.A. Total: $312m – Total: $623m.
  • Thor (2011) – Opening Weekend: $65m – N.A. Total: $181m – Total: $449m.
  • Captain America: The First Avenger (2011) – Opening Weekend: $65m – N.A. Total: $176m – Total: $370m.
  • Marvel’s The Avengers (2012) – Opening Weekend: $207m – N.A. Total: $623m – Total: $1,5bn.

PHASE TWO (Age of Ultron – as of July 17th, 2015)

  • Iron Man 3 (2013) – Opening Weekend: $174m – N.A. Total: $409m – Total: $1,2bn.
  • Thor: The Dark World (2013) – Opening Weekend: $85m – N.A. Total: $206m – Total: $644m.
  • Captain America: The Winter Soldier (2014) – Opening Weekend: $95m – N.A. Total: $259m – Total: $714m.
  • Guardians of the Galaxy (2014) – Opening Weekend: $94m – N.A. Total: $333m – Total: $774m.
  • Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015) – Opening Weekend: $191m – N.A. Total: $455m – Total: $1,3bn.

The only ‘bad’ box office numbers by Marvel Studios standards is The Incredible Hulk, but we have to remember that that was prior to the Marvel Cinematic Universe really being a thing. Ant-Man will, without a doubt, make more than The Incredible Hulk (Sidenote: if Ant-Man makes more than $451 million worldwide, then the Marvel Cinematic Universe will reach a total of $9 billion at the box office).

I think you have to compare Ant-Man, not to Guardians of the Galaxy, but to the Thor-films – especially Thor: The Dark World, arguably the least popular Phase Two-film. Thor 2, though underwhelming to some, did almost as good as Guardians of the Galaxy outside of North America – the Marvel brand is hot, regardless of the title.

With the opening weekend numbers in mind, I predict that Ant-Man will eventually score a total of $145 million in North America, and $320 million in the rest of the world – a worldwide total of $465 million.

Anything less than $450m would probably be considered a failure to the general public – though considering the production cost and the strength of the foreign market this won’t be a box office flop.

What do you think Ant-Man will make at the Box Office? Sound off in the comments.

I’m Jeffrey Rex

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