Who Will Win? – Final Predictions | 96th Oscars

To paraphrase one of Hollywood’s all-time best awards hosts, it is a wonderful day for Oscar! Oscar, Oscar — who will win? In quite a few categories tonight, it seems we already know. But there are some genuine close calls this year with actress, costuming, and production design being particularly interesting. Read on below to find out which films I think will be the big winners tonight, where we all expect Christopher Nolan to be crowned for his achievements as the safest bet in Hollywood when it comes to visionary modern directors.

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The Shorts

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Best Animated Short Film

• Letter to a Pig – Tal Kantor and Amit R. Gicelter
• Ninety-Five Senses – Jared and Jerusha Hess
• Our Uniform – Yegane Moghaddam
• Pachyderme – Stéphanie Clément and Marc Rius
• War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko – Dave Mullins and Brad Booker (PREDICTED WINNER)

Best Documentary Short Film

• The ABCs of Book Banning – Sheila Nevins and Trish Adlesic (PREDICTED WINNER)
• The Barber of Little Rock – John Hoffman and Christine Turner
• Island in Between – S. Leo Chiang and Jean Tsien
• The Last Repair Shop – Ben Proudfoot and Kris Bowers
• Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó – Sean Wang and Sam Davis

Best Live-Action Short Film

• The After – Misan Harriman and Nicky Bentham
• Invincible – Vincent René-Lortie and Samuel Caron
• Knight of Fortune – Lasse Lyskjær Noer and Christian Norlyk
• Red, White, and Blue – Nazrin Choudhury and Sara McFarlane
• The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar – Wes Anderson and Steven Rales (PREDICTED WINNER)

The short categories are always tricky. This is especially true when you haven’t seen all of the films. What I will say is that this isn’t purely guesswork. Some of this is based on word-of-mouth or the like, but I will also say that some of this is based on what patterns I see the Academy following. Although it’s reportedly nowhere near the best film in the category, or at least that’s what I’ve been told, the The Beatles connection with War Is Over! feels like it could result in it being an easy check-off for hastily filled-out ballots based on name recognition. Similarly, it’s hard to fully buy into the idea that Wes Anderson will somehow lose the live-action category. One might argue that the category was not made for filmmakers of his notoriety to get little golden men for, but, hey, here he is and he seems like the obvious winner. I think Red, White, and Blue or Knight of Fortune could be potential ‘spoilers’ in this category if AMPAS decides not to award the big-time director.

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The Film Categories

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Best International Feature Film

• Io capitano (Italy) – directed by Matteo Garrone
• Perfect Days (Japan) – directed by Wim Wenders
• Society of the Snow (Spain) – directed by J. A. Bayona
• The Teachers’ Lounge (Germany) – directed by İlker Çatak
• The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom) – directed by Jonathan Glazer (PREDICTED WINNER)

Whenever one of these is also nominated for Best Picture, then you can safely assume that said film will easily take this award. Had France submitted Anatomy of a Fall in this category, then we could’ve had a real race. If, and I mean if, there is a chance for a surprise winner here, then Spain’s selection is probably it, as it has Netflix’s backing.

Best Documentary Feature Film

• Bobi Wine: The People’s President – Moses Bwayo, Christopher Sharp, and John Battsek
• The Eternal Memory – Maite Alberdi
• Four Daughters – Kaouther Ben Hania and Nadim Cheikhrouha
• To Kill a Tiger – Nisha Pahuja, Cornelia Principe, and David Oppenheim
• 20 Days in Mariupol – Mstyslav Chernov, Michelle Mizner, and Raney Aronson-Rath (PREDICTED WINNER)

Chernov’s Ukrainian documentary about the first days of the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine is harrowing but hugely important stuff that is outright unforgettable. This wouldn’t just be a deserving winner, it would also be an appropriate political message.

Best Animated Feature Film

• The Boy and the Heron – Hayao Miyazaki and Toshio Suzuki
• Elemental – Peter Sohn and Denise Ream
• Nimona – Nick Bruno, Troy Quane, Karen Ryan, and Julie Zackary
• Robot Dreams – Pablo Berger, Ibon Cormenzana, Ignasi Estapé, and Sandra Tapia Díaz
• Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse – Kemp Powers, Justin K. Thompson, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, and Amy Pascal (PREDICTED WINNER)

I think this one is seriously tough to call. It is a genuine race between Miyazaki and the middle part of the acclaimed but as-of-yet unfinished Spider-Verse animated trilogy. I think there is a good chance that the international contingent of Academy voters rally behind Miyazaki’s film, but I also think that Spidey is more widely seen. Across the Spider-Verse‘s incredible 7 out of 7 wins at the Annie Awards made me, ultimately, go with that film.

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Below-The-Line

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Best Visual Effects

• The Creator – Jay Cooper, Ian Comley, Andrew Roberts, and Neil Corbould
• Godzilla Minus One – Takashi Yamazaki, Kiyoko Shibuya, Masaki Takahashi, and Tatsuji Nojima (PREDICTED WINNER)
• Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 – Stéphane Ceretti, Alexis Wajsbrot, Guy Williams, and Theo Bialek
• Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One – Alex Wuttke, Simone Coco, Jeff Sutherland, and Neil Corbould
• Napoleon – Charley Henley, Luc-Ewen Martin-Fenouillet, Simone Coco, and Neil Corbould

Although The Creator found great success at the Visual Effects Society Awards (and even though it features incredible, seamless visual effects), I’m leaning towards Godzilla Mins One based on the fact that Godzilla simply has more brand recognition but also because of the increasingly significant aforementioned international contingent of the Academy. But, yeah, I definitely think this is a race.

Best Sound

• The Creator – Ian Voigt, Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van der Ryn, Tom Ozanich, and Dean Zupancic
• Maestro – Steven A. Morrow, Richard King, Jason Ruder, Tom Ozanich, and Dean Zupancic
• Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One – Chris Munro, James H. Mather, Chris Burdon, and Mark Taylor
• Oppenheimer – Willie Burton, Richard King, Gary A. Rizzo, and Kevin O’Connell (PREDICTED WINNER)
• The Zone of Interest – Tarn Willers and Johnnie Burn

There are essentially two schools of thought here: do you think AMPAS will 1) go with the hot-hand and Best Picture favorite (i.e. Oppenheimer — which does feature great sound work), or do you think AMPAS will (2 go with the film that features arguably the most unforgettable and haunting sounds of the bunch (i.e. The Zone of Interest — which, on the other hand, may not be as widely seen or liked as the former)? This one is genuinely tough to call, but, frankly, I think there is a chance that some voters just checked off Oppenheimer everywhere they could (assuming that it has the most no. 1 votes in Best Picture), which may be enough to move the needle in its favor.

Best Original Song

• “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot – Music and lyrics by Diane Warren
• “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie – Music and lyrics by Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt
• “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony – Music and lyrics by Jon Batiste and Dan Wilson
• “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon – Music and lyrics by Scott George
• “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie – Music and lyrics by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell (PREDICTED WINNER)

While I am going with a Barbie song, I do think there is a chance that both songs are so popular that they essentially split the votes, thus allowing a third contender to take a surprise win. That could be Scorsese’s film, for example. That said, I think Eilish is getting another Oscar here.

Best Orignal Score

• American Fiction – Laura Karpman
• Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny – John Williams
• Killers of the Flower Moon – Robbie Robertson
• Oppenheimer – Ludwig Göransson (PREDICTED WINNER)
• Poor Things – Jerskin Fendrix

I think what Göransson does for Nolan’s film is outstanding, and I feel pretty confident that he is winning. That said, I think the late great Robbie Robertson would also be a hugely deserving winner, and I’d love for the Academy to celebrate his work with an award here.

Best Production Design

• Barbie – Production Design: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
• Killers of the Flower Moon – Production Design: Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Adam Willis
• Napoleon – Production Design: Arthur Max; Set Decoration: Elli Griff
• Oppenheimer – Production Design: Ruth De Jong; Set Decoration: Claire Kaufman
• Poor Things – Production Design: James Price and Shona Heath; Set Decoration: Zsuzsa Mihalek (PREDICTED WINNER)

Although they are not the only worthy winners in this category, it seems like this race, like costuming, is down to Barbie and Poor Things. The work in both films is undeniable, and here I’m going with a film that I think has had more momentum in the last few weeks, but I could be wrong.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

• Golda – Karen Hartley Thomas, Suzi Battersby, and Ashra Kelly-Blue
• Maestro – Kazu Hiro, Kay Georgiou, and Lori McCoy-Bell (PREDICTED WINNER)
• Oppenheimer – Luisa Abel
• Poor Things – Nadia Stacey, Mark Coulier, and Josh Weston
• Society of the Snow – Ana López-Puigcerver, David Martí, and Montse Ribé

This is the one and only category that Maestro hasn’t lost all forward momentum in. Heck, to some it may be more famous for its use of prosthetics and makeup than many other elements given how much the internet has been going after Bradley Cooper in recent weeks. All of that said, I’d love for Poor Things to take it here. I mean, just take one look at Dafoe in that film.

Best Film Editing

• Anatomy of a Fall – Laurent Sénéchal
• The Holdovers – Kevin Tent
• Killers of the Flower Moon – Thelma Schoonmaker
• Oppenheimer – Jennifer Lame (PREDICTED WINNER)
• Poor Things – Yorgos Mavropsaridis

Although I would be so happy to see Thelma Schoonmaker win, I think it is pretty clear that Jennifer Lame is going home with this one — and, frankly, she is definitely a worthy winner given the way she handled pacing and the joining of two distinct overlapping narratives.

Best Costume Design

• Barbie – Jacqueline Durran (PREDICTED WINNER)
• Killers of the Flower Moon – Jacqueline West
• Napoleon – Janty Yates and Dave Crossman
• Oppenheimer – Ellen Mirojnick
• Poor Things – Holly Waddington

Do we think that AMPAS is giving the Oscar to Barbie for their recreations or do we think they’d rather award the original period-esque but quirky costumes of Poor Things? This is one of the closest calls of the night. Frankly, since final voting is open to the entire Academy, I’m going with Barbie as it features costumes that were specifically recreated from toys — and it makes sure that you know that when you see it. In addition, I think the wider public wants the film to win something for how it got people to dress up in pink to go see it in theaters. That said, if only the costuming branch could vote for the winners — like they do with nominees — I’d be going for Poor Things.

Best Cinematography

• El Conde – Edward Lachman
• Killers of the Flower Moon – Rodrigo Prieto
• Maestro – Matthew Libatique
• Oppenheimer – Hoyte van Hoytema (PREDICTED WINNER)
• Poor Things – Robbie Ryan

Is there a world where Prieto or Ryan win this? Sure, but I feel fairly confident that Hoyte van Hoytema will take his first little golden man tonight.

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Above-The-Line

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Best Original Screenplay

• Anatomy of a Fall – Justine Triet and Arthur Harari (PREDICTED WINNER)
• The Holdovers – David Hemingson
• Maestro – Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer
• May December – Screenplay by Samy Burch; Story by Samy Burch and Alex Mechanik
• Past Lives – Celine Song

Could be Hemingson or Song, but I think the Academy wants to find a way to award Justine Triet’s film with something — and this is that big opportunity. It did win at the BAFTAs and the Globes, so this feels like a likely winner.

Best Adapted Screenplay

• American Fiction – Cord Jefferson; based on the novel Erasure by Percival Everett (PREDICTED WINNER)
• Barbie – Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach; based on characters created by Ruth Handler
• Oppenheimer – Christopher Nolan; based on the biography American Prometheus: The Triumph and Tragedy of J. Robert Oppenheimer by Kai Bird and Martin J. Sherwin
• Poor Things – Tony McNamara; based on the novel by Alasdair Gray
• The Zone of Interest – Jonathan Glazer; based on the novel by Martin Amis

Does it feel a little strange not to pick Oppenheimer here given that it’s likely to be the film of the night? Yeah, it does. That said, American Fiction did win the BAFTA, and, furthermore, I do think there is a chance that people will want to vote for Barbie here since Gerwig wasn’t nominated for director.

Best Supporting Actor

• Sterling K. Brown – American Fiction as Clifford “Cliff” Ellison
• Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon as William King Hale
• Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer as Lewis Strauss (PREDICTED WINNER)
• Ryan Gosling – Barbie as Ken
• Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things as Duncan Wedderburn

Make no mistake, unless something incredible and unforeseen happens on Oscar night, this race is over. Congratulations to RDJ.

Best Supporting Actress

• Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer as Kitty Oppenheimer
• Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple as Sofia
• America Ferrera – Barbie as Gloria
• Jodie Foster – Nyad as Bonnie Stoll
• Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers as Mary Lamb (PREDICTED WINNER)

Make no mistake, unless something incredible and unforeseen happens on Oscar night, this race is over. Congratulations to Da’Vine Joy Randolph.

Best Actor

• Bradley Cooper – Maestro as Leonard Bernstein
• Colman Domingo – Rustin as Bayard Rustin
• Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers as Paul Hunham
• Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer as J. Robert Oppenheimer (PREDICTED WINNER)
• Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction as Thelonious “Monk” Ellison

He won the BAFTA, the SAG, and the Golden Globe, and therefore I feel pretty confident that Murphy will also win his first Oscar for playing the title character in Nolan’s latest hit. But if there is a surprise, then it’d probably be Giamatti.

Best Actress

• Annette Bening – Nyad as Diana Nyad
• Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon as Mollie Burkhart (PREDICTED WINNER)
• Sandra Hüller – Anatomy of a Fall as Sandra Voyter
• Carey Mulligan – Maestro as Felicia Montealegre
• Emma Stone – Poor Things as Bella Baxter

This is probably the most talked about category among awards prognosticators going into the big night. On the one hand, Lily Gladstone has won awards at the Globes and the Screen Actors’ Guild, but, on the other hand, Gladstone wasn’t even nominated for the BAFTAs where Emma Stone, who also has a Globe win, won. Since SAG got it right the last two years in this category, conventional wisdom would suggest that Gladstone is the one to go with. But, then again, Gladstone has less screen-time and if she doesn’t win here, her film isn’t a favorite to win anything really, while Poor Things seems to have a lot of support in certain categories. I have a lot of passion for both films and performances, one of which is subtle while the other is undeniable and both of them are just fantastic — they are their movies, to a certain extent. Also, don’t be too shocked if Hüller somehow wins. The international voters will probably rally around her, and it could be enough if the Academy is divided on Stone and Gladstone.

Best Director

• Justine Triet – Anatomy of a Fall
• Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon
• Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer (PREDICTED WINNER)
• Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things
• Jonathan Glazer – The Zone of Interest

The only way this incredible line-up of nominees could be any better is if Greta Gerwig was nominated in a sixth slot. I would be over the moon with joy if Martin Scorsese won here, but there can be no doubt that tonight Christopher Nolan’s coronation — and, frankly, I’m also very happy for him.

Best Picture

• American Fiction – Ben LeClair, Nikos Karamigios, Cord Jefferson, and Jermaine Johnson, producers
• Anatomy of a Fall – Marie-Ange Luciani and David Thion, producers
• Barbie – David Heyman, Margot Robbie, Tom Ackerley, and Robbie Brenner, producers
• The Holdovers – Mark Johnson, producer
• Killers of the Flower Moon – Dan Friedkin, Bradley Thomas, Martin Scorsese, and Daniel Lupi, producers
• Maestro – Bradley Cooper, Steven Spielberg, Fred Berner, Amy Durning, and Kristie Macosko Krieger, producers
• Oppenheimer – Emma Thomas, Charles Roven, and Christopher Nolan, producers (PREDICTED WINNER)
• Past Lives – David Hinojosa, Christine Vachon, and Pamela Koffler, producers
• Poor Things – Ed Guiney, Andrew Lowe, Yorgos Lanthimos, and Emma Stone, producers
• The Zone of Interest – James Wilson, producer

This year, it seems like the big question isn’t which film has the most #1 votes, but rather which film has the second-most. Everyone and their grandmother expects Oppenheimer to take this, but it’s tough to figure out which film is its biggest contender. It could be Barbie (perhaps as a response to the lack of Gerwig in director), it could be Poor Things (given that it has 11 nominations), but it could also be The Holdovers. I’m genuinely not sure, but methinks its probably Barbie. If Oppenheimer wins, though, we’ll never know. And I do think Emma Thomas is one of the producers we’ll see on stage as the show comes to an end tonight.

– Article and Predictions Written by Jeffrey Rex Bertelsen.