Box Office Predictions – July 2018

And now we are officially into the second half of 2018. It still feels like the year just started, but, hey, here we are, and it is already time for the third (!!!) and final Marvel Studios film of 2018. Ant-Man and the Wasp is the big topic of discussion for July 2018, but I am also going to be talking about one other major July releases. Let’s get to it. 

SELECT NORTH AMERICAN OPENING WEEKEND PREDICTIONS – July:

  • Ant-Man and the Wasp – Disney-Marvel – July 6th – $79 million
  • Mission: Impossible – Fallout – Paramount – July 27th – $62 million

The first Ant-Man film didn’t open like a Marvel movie. $57 million was a bit of a disappointment, and it was international audiences that made it a success. I think the sequel will find success much easier. Infinity War should bring in a lot of viewers hoping to see what happened to Scott Lang during the events of the aforementioned Avengers film. Civil War also made Ant-Man an even more popular character than he already was, and I fully expect Ant-Man and the Wasp to open to something close to what Doctor Strange opened to ($85 million).

I have to admit that I’m not super excited about Mission: Impossible – Fallout. I know, I know, the trailers have been pretty good. I do want to see Tom Cruise do another stunt. It’ll probably be fun to watch. But you may be surprised to learn that the one and only thing that I actually find intriguing about this film is the fact that this is the movie Henry Cavill got a mustache for. That’s right, this is the Justice League-ruining mustache. As for its chances in its opening weekend? Well, it’s simple really. These films have pretty much all opened in the $45-57 million range. I’m betting it’ll go just a little bit higher than that.


Box Office Report

SELECT OPENING WEEKENDS – June:

  • Incredibles 2 – Buena Vista – June 15th – $182 million (+42)
  • Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom – Universal – June 22nd – $148 million (+18)

I knew Incredibles 2 would break Pixar records. I knew it would be a hit. I didn’t know it would have the 8th biggest opening weekend in North American box office history, which also makes it the biggest opening for an animated film ever.

What was interesting about Fallen Kingdom was how far it would drop off after the huge success of Jurassic World. Despite mixed reviews, it still opened to a more than respectable $148 million weekend. This is a win for Universal, even though it isn’t close to Jurassic World‘s opening.


THE BILLION DOLLAR CLUB — 2018 Edition:

  1. Avengers: Infinity War – Disney/Marvel – $2.03 billion
  2. Black Panther – Disney/Marvel – $1.34 billion

None of the four selected major openings of July will end up with a $1 billion total, at least, I don’t expect any of them to get to that total. But Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom absolutely will join the club during July. Although I was definitely mixed on the film, audiences ate it all up.

 – Jeffrey Rex Bertelsen

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