Box Office Predictions – January 2016

Box Office Prediction

Box Office Predictions is back! Now, Box Office Predictions will post the first Wednesday of every month, and predict the opening weekends of major releases. We’re now in January, a month infamous for containing bad films. Can De Niro’s comedy Dirty Grandpa become the biggest film of the month, or will Michael Bay’s 13 Hours outshine it? 


  • The ForestFocus Features – January 8th, 2016 – $8-12 million
  • 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of BenghaziParamount – January 15th, 2016 – $15-18 million
  • Ride Along 2Universal – January 15th, 2016 – $25-30 million
  • The 5th WaveSony / Columbia – January 22nd, 2016 – $15-20 million
  • Dirty GrandpaLionsgate – January 22nd, 2016 – $18-22 million
  • The Finest HoursBuena Vista – January 29th, 2016 – $18-25 million
  • Kung Fu Panda 3Fox – January 29th, 2016 – $35-45 million

Which of the films listed above could blow past my own expectations?

Well, I don’t think 13 Hours looks good – but some people may be interested in it, and gravitate towards it after last year’s success of American Sniper. The Finest Hour is another one that I’m just not expecting a lot from, but I fear that I may be underestimating its box office power.

Will we see the same box office and movie culture phenomenon that The Force Awakens has been in 2016 with perhaps Batman v. Superman, Civil War, or Rogue One?

We definitely won’t see an opening weekend at the same scale ($247m), unless people are just still captivated by Star Wars in eleven months, in spite of the fact that it won’t be a new episode releasing until 2017. I could see Batman v. Superman get past Jurassic World‘s opening weekend ($208m), but I still highly doubt it.

At the time of writing, Star Wars: The Force Awakens has made $1,53 billion at the worldwide box office. Will The Force Awakens get past Avatar‘s record of $2,78 billion?

I still don’t think so. $2,8 billion still just seems unreal. I’m pretty sure it can beat Titanic for second place, but I cannot sign off on the top dog – Avatar – being beat. But I really hope it does beat the record. The thing is that the film just won’t hold overseas unless China really loves it, and I mean REALLY loves it. This film should fall short of Avatar worldwide, but it might beat Titanic. It all depends on China, which apparently isn’t as familiar with Star Wars as the rest of the globe is.

What film not named The Force Awakens will win January? Sound off in the comments.

I’m Jeffrey Rex

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