I’m finally back with Box Office Predictions! In this special New Year’s Day post I’ll be predicting the top 5 biggest opening weekends of 2016, and I’ll probably fail completely when it’s all said and done. But I’m saying there’s a chance I’ll be right about some of the picks here. Have a look!
- Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice – $200-220 million.
- Rogue One: A Star Wars Story – $180-220 million.
- Captain America: Civil War – $170-200 million.
- The Jungle Book – $140-165 million.
- Finding Dory – $120-135 million.
Here are some of my thoughts on the list:
- Batman v Superman: No DC Comics-based film has ever opened to more than $160 million (The Dark Knight Rises having the biggest opening) until now. People have waited for years for Batman v. Superman, and I think it’ll do Avengers-like numbers if the film is any good. Anything above $152 million would be the biggest North American opening of March ever.
- Civil War: No Captain America-film has opened to more than $95 million, but Civil War is more of an event for the Marvel Cinematic Universe. I don’t think it’ll really challenge Batman v Superman based on opening weekend figures, but I do think it’ll crush most of the competition of 2016.
- Deadpool: You might have noticed that Deadpool wasn’t on my list, here’s why: Deadpool is an R-Rated superhero film, which doesn’t have the greatest audience compared to Spider-Man or Batman, and the rating does hinder it somewhat. However, I do think that it has a chance to be the first $100 million opening weekend for an R-rated film (thus besting The Matrix Reloaded record of $91 million). Comparatively, another R-rated film opened in February of 2015, which had a great audience – that film was Fifty Shades of Grey. Deadpool is set to open against Zoolander 2, which I think could have a similar audience. I don’t think Deadpool will open to more than $90 million, but I hope I’m wrong. $90 million, however, would be an opening weekend record for February.
- X-Men: X-Men Apocalypse is going up against the sequel to Alice in Wonderland, and the original Alice-film opened to $116 million. Meanwhile, the biggest opening ever for an X-Men film was $102 million. I have a tough time saying it will make more than maybe $120 million right now. If Deadpool, Batman v. Superman, and Civil War are all great, then that could help X-Men significantly.
- Warcraft: I am really uncomfortable predicting anything with Warcraft in its title. Video game films aren’t that popular, and the biggest Lord of the Rings-style opening was the first Hobbit-film, which only opened to $84 million. It’ll probably reach at least $100 million due to it being in the summer period.
- Rogue One: The Force Awakens may have broken every North American record imaginable, but Rogue One isn’t a Star Wars episode, and I think that might be a problem for the film at the box office. I do still think that the Disney-marketing machine will roll on and get it close to $200 million, but it won’t be an easy sell now that people are clamoring for Episode VIII.
- Assassin’s Creed: Move out of Rogue One‘s way! While Rogue One isn’t an episode, it is still a Star Wars film, and Fox needs to move Assassin’s Creed to November 2016 or February 2017 to really make money. It won’t get to anywhere near $90 million so close to Rogue One (it opens the week after Rogue One).
What film do you think will have the biggest opening weekend of 2016? Sound off in the comments.
I’m Jeffrey Rex