It’s time for the 98th Academy Awards. Here comes the Oscars! This awards season has felt incredibly long. Certain above-the-line categories have zig-zagged over and over again, thus leaving us in a pretty exciting situation where only 1 acting category seems locked. Best Picture is a two-horse race between Sinners and One Battle After Another, and these two Warner Bros. crowdpleasing juggernauts are both deserving of the top prize. As is always the case, I am now ready with my predictions for each and every category, and I’ll also add some comments, personal preferences, and potential alternate winners. However, unlike for members of the Academy, AMPAS doesn’t make sure that I, or any viewer around the world for that matter, am ensured an opportunity to see every nominated film; I do have some blind spots. Thus, if there are categories where there are so many blind spots that I don’t think it’s fair to personally choose one over the others, I simply won’t put a personal preference but solely make a prediction.
Best Picture
- Bugonia – Ed Guiney, Andrew Lowe, Yorgos Lanthimos, Emma Stone, and Lars Knudsen, producers
- F1 – Chad Oman, Brad Pitt, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Joseph Kosinski, and Jerry Bruckheimer, producers
- Frankenstein – Guillermo del Toro, J. Miles Dale, and Scott Stuber, producers
- Hamnet – Liza Marshall, Pippa Harris, Nicolas Gonda, Steven Spielberg, and Sam Mendes, producers
- Marty Supreme – Eli Bush, Ronald Bronstein, Josh Safdie, Anthony Katagas, and Timothée Chalamet, producers
- One Battle After Another – Adam Somner (p.n.), Sara Murphy, and Paul Thomas Anderson, producers
- The Secret Agent – Emilie Lesclaux, producer
- Sentimental Value – Maria Ekerhovd and Andrea Berentsen Ottmar, producers
- Sinners – Zinzi Coogler, Sev Ohanian, and Ryan Coogler, producers
- Train Dreams – Marissa McMahon, Teddy Schwarzman, Will Janowitz, Ashley Schlaifer, and Michael Heimler, producers
Will Win: One Battle After Another.
Could Win: Sinners.
Personal Preference: One Battle After Another or Sinners.
For the longest time, One Battle After Another was the clear and obvious frontrunner. Despite being likely, the SAG ensemble win for Sinners did get me to flip in the next days, as the added bonus of Michael B. Jordan winning did make me think that perhaps the passion around the film could be enough to earn the new record-nominated film the Best Picture win. So, why did I change back to One Battle After Another at the last minute? Well, first, let me be clear that, unlike some corners of the internet, I do think it is possible to love both films — and I do (they’re both in my Top 5 for my favorite films of 2025 list, soon to be released) — but, at the end of the day, I think that, if you give any credence to the importance of precursor awards, then you have to go with One Battle After Another here. Sinners is definitely the one with the most passion (and it could be enough), but the PGA+DGA+WGA+BAFTA package that One Battle After Another has should do the trick. If that package doesn’t lead to a Best Picture win, then all bets are off for future Oscar seasons. But it could be close, as Sinners could have a Parasite-like moment.
Best Director
- Chloé Zhao – Hamnet
- Josh Safdie – Marty Supreme
- Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another
- Joachim Trier – Sentimental Value
- Ryan Coogler – Sinners
Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another).
Could Win: Ryan Coogler (Sinners).
Personal Preference: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) or Ryan Coogler (Sinners).
Given his DGA and BAFTA wins, his popularity, and the fact that a lot of people think he is overdue for an Oscar win, Paul Thomas Anderson is the frontrunner by some margin. That said, don’t let anyone tell you that Coogler can’t win here. He is one of the fastest-rising American auteurs at this moment; he has made several immensely popular films, he is extremely talented and popular, and his latest film overcame unfair negative press to become the Hollywood success story of 2025. As a big fan of them both, I’m just excited to see what happens.
Best Actor
- Timothée Chalamet – Marty Supreme as Marty Mauser
- Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another as Bob Ferguson
- Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon as Lorenz Hart
- Michael B. Jordan – Sinners as Elijah “Smoke” Moore / Elias “Stack” Moore
- Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent as Armando Solimões / Marcelo Alves / Fernando Solimões
Will Win: Michael B. Jordan (Sinners).
Could Win: Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) or Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another) or Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent).
What a strange journey you’ve been on if you’ve followed this race closely. Early on, it certainly felt like DiCaprio would have the best chance (and, a part of me, is confused that he didn’t remain the frontrunner, given his entertaining performance), then precursors and word-of-mouth came out for every film, and it seemed like Chalamet and Moura had jumped ahead of him in the race. When Moura missed nominations at key precursors, Chalamet looked like the winner. But then he lost out at BAFTA to someone not nominated here, while Michael B. Jordan won the SAG award. I’m leaning towards Jordan at this moment for a couple of reasons: (1) there’s a lot of goodwill around him potentially winning, (2) we don’t know who was 2nd at BAFTAs (sure, it could be Chalamet, but it could also be Leo, MBJ or Hawke), and (3) Chalamet’s comments about ballet and opera, whether as inflammatory as they’re being made out to be or not, have soured a lot of people on his campaign. So yeah, I think this could be a great night for Michael B. Jordan, and I’d be very happy for him. It’s a really strong and memorable dual performance he turned in.
Best Actress
- Jessie Buckley – Hamnet as Agnes Shakespeare
- Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You as Linda
- Kate Hudson – Song Sung Blue as Claire Sardina
- Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value as Nora Borg
- Emma Stone – Bugonia as Michelle Fuller
Will Win: Jesse Buckley (Hamnet).
A category doesn’t get more locked than this one is.
Best Supporting Actor
- Benicio del Toro – One Battle After Another as Sensei Sergio St. Carlos
- Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein as The Creature
- Delroy Lindo – Sinners as Delta Slim
- Sean Penn – One Battle After Another as Col. Steven J. Lockjaw
- Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value as Gustav Borg
Will Win: Sean Penn (One Battle After Another).
Could Win: Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value) or Delroy Lindo (Sinners).
Personal Preference: Sean Penn (One Battle After Another) or Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value) or Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another).
I think this race is relatively locked. Penn’s Oscar season includes BAFTA, SAG, and Golden Globes wins. What’s working against him? Well, (1) he and del Toro will likely both get votes and thus risk taking it away from each other, (2) he hasn’t really given many speeches this season, and (3) he already has two Oscars. I still think he’ll win, though.
Best Supporting Actress
- Elle Fanning – Sentimental Value as Rachel Kemp
- Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas – Sentimental Value as Agnes Borg Pettersen
- Amy Madigan – Weapons as Gladys
- Wunmi Mosaku – Sinners as Annie
- Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another as Perfidia Beverly Hills
Will Win: Amy Madigan (Weapons).
Could Win: Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners) or Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another.
Personal Preference: Inga Ibsdottir Lilleaas (Sentimental Value) or Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value).
This is a real toss-up. Mosaku has a BAFTA win, Taylor has a Golden Globe win, and Madigan has a SAG win. That SAG win is what gets me to choose Madigan, despite the fact that she’s competing in a category full of performances from Best Picture-nominated films. What about the Sentimental Value women? They might be my personal favorites here, even though I really like all of the nominees, but I think they cancel each other out and lack the passion that the other three nominees have behind them.
Best Original Screenplay
- Blue Moon – Robert Kaplow
- It Was Just an Accident – Jafar Panahi; in collaboration with Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin, and Mehdi Mahmoudian
- Marty Supreme – Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
- Sentimental Value – Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier
- Sinners – Ryan Coogler
Will Win: Sinners.
Could Win: Sentimental Value.
Personal Preference: Sinners or Sentimental Value.
Best Adapted Screenplay
- Bugonia – Will Tracy; based on the film Save the Green Planet! by Jang Joon-hwan
- Frankenstein – Guillermo del Toro; based on the novel by Mary Shelley
- Hamnet – Chloé Zhao and Maggie O’Farrell; based on the novel by Maggie O’Farrell
- One Battle After Another – Paul Thomas Anderson; based on the novel Vineland by Thomas Pynchon
- Train Dreams – Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar; based on the novella by Denis Johnson
Will Win: One Battle After Another.
Could Win: Hamnet or Frankenstein.
Personal Preference: One Battle After Another.
Best Animated Feature
- Arco – Ugo Bienvenu, Félix de Givry, Sophie Mas, and Natalie Portman
- Elio – Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina, and Mary Alice Drumm
- KPop Demon Hunters – Maggie Kang, Chris Appelhans, and Michelle L.M. Wong
- Little Amélie or the Character of Rain – Maïlys Vallade, Liane-Cho Han, Nidia Santiago, and Henri Magalon
- Zootopia 2 – Jared Bush, Byron Howard, and Yvett Merino
Will Win: KPop Demon Hunters.
Could Win: Zootopia 2.
Best International Feature
- It Was Just an Accident (France) in Persian and Azerbaijani – directed by Jafar Panahi
- The Secret Agent (Brazil) in Portuguese and German – directed by Kleber Mendonça Filho
- Sentimental Value (Norway) in Norwegian, Swedish, and English – directed by Joachim Trier
- Sirāt (Spain) in Spanish, French, and Arabic – directed by Oliver Laxe
- The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia) in Arabic – directed by Kaouther Ben Hania
Will Win: Sentimental Value.
Could Win: The Secret Agent.
Personal Preference: Sentimental Value.
Best Documentary Feature
- The Alabama Solution – Andrew Jarecki and Charlotte Kaufman
- Come See Me in the Good Light – Ryan White, Jessica Hargrave, Tig Notaro, and Stef Willen
- Cutting Through Rocks – Sara Khaki and Mohammadreza Eyni
- Mr. Nobody Against Putin – David Borenstein, Pavel Talankin, Helle Faber, and Alžběta Karásková
- The Perfect Neighbor – Geeta Gandbhir, Alisa Payne, Nikon Kwantu, and Sam Bisbee
Will Win: The Perfect Neighbor.
Could Win: The Perfect Neighbor or Mr. Nobody Against Putin.
Personal Preference: The Perfect Neighbor or Mr. Nobody Against Putin.
Best Documentary Short
- All the Empty Rooms – Joshua Seftel and Conall Jones
- Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud – Craig Renaud and Juan Arredondo
- Children No More: “Were and Are Gone” – Hilla Medalia and Sheila Nevins
- The Devil Is Busy – Christalyn Hampton and Geeta Gandbhir
- Perfectly a Strangeness – Alison McAlpine
Will Win: All the Empty Rooms.
Could Win: The Devil Is Busy or Armed Only with a Camera.
Personal Preference: The Devil Is Busy or All the Empty Rooms.
Best Live-Action Short
- Butcher’s Stain – Meyer Levinson-Blount and Oron Caspi
- A Friend of Dorothy – Lee Knight and James Dean
- Jane Austen’s Period Drama – Julia Aks and Steve Pinder
- The Singers – Sam A. Davis and Jack Piatt
- Two People Exchanging Saliva – Alexandre Singh and Natalie Musteata
Will Win: Two People Exchanging Saliva.
Could Win: The Singers or A Friend of Dorothy.
Personal Preference: Two People Exchanging Saliva or The Singers.
Best Animated Short
- Butterfly – Florence Miailhe and Ron Dyens
- Forevergreen – Nathan Engelhardt and Jeremy Spears
- The Girl Who Cried Pearls – Chris Lavis and Maciek Szczerbowski
- Retirement Plan – John Kelly and Andrew Freedman
- The Three Sisters – Konstantin Bronzit
Will Win: Butterfly.
Could Win: The Girl Who Cried Pearls.
Personal Preference: Butterfly or Retirement Plan.
Best Original Score
- Bugonia – Jerskin Fendrix
- Frankenstein – Alexandre Desplat
- Hamnet – Max Richter
- One Battle After Another – Jonny Greenwood
- Sinners – Ludwig Göransson
Will Win: Sinners.
Could Win: One Battle After Another or Hamnet.
Personal Preference: Sinners or One Battle After Another.
Best Original Song
- “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless – Music and lyrics by Diane Warren
- “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters – Music and lyrics by Ejae, Mark Sonnenblick, 24, Ido, and Teddy Park
- “I Lied to You” from Sinners – Music and lyrics by Raphael Saadiq and Ludwig Göransson
- “Sweet Dreams of Joy” from Viva Verdi! – Music and lyrics by Nicholas Pike
- “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams – Music by Nick Cave and Bryce Dessner; lyrics by Nick Cave
Will Win: “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters.
Could Win: “I Lied to You” from Sinners.
Personal Preference: “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters.
Best Sound
- F1 – Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo, and Juan Peralta
- Frankenstein – Greg Chapman, Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira, Christian Cooke, and Brad Zoern
- One Battle After Another – José Antonio García, Christopher Scarabosio, and Tony Villaflor
- Sinners – Chris Welcker, Benjamin A. Burtt, Felipe Pacheco, Brandon Proctor, and Steve Boeddeker
- Sirāt – Amanda Villavieja, Laia Casanovas, and Yasmina Praderas
Will Win: F1.
Could Win: One Battle After Another or Sinners.
Personal Preference: F1 or One Battle After Another or Sinners.
Best Casting
- Hamnet – Nina Gold
- Marty Supreme – Jennifer Venditti
- One Battle After Another – Cassandra Kulukundis
- The Secret Agent – Gabriel Domingues
- Sinners – Francine Maisler
Will Win: Sinners.
Could Win: One Battle After Another or Hamnet or The Secret Agent.
Personal Preference: Sinners or One Battle After Another.
It’ll be fascinating to see what direction this all-new category will take. Will voters misinterpret it as ‘Best Cast’? Given the new rules about having to have watched every film in a category to be able to vote in it, is there a chance it could lead to a large quantity of abstentions due to an international film being present, thus leading the way for said international film to take the category? Or will the award perhaps be used to praise a film for one big find in a sea of recognizable faces, many of which are unlikely to have gone through a proper audition phase? The answer is that we don’t know yet. But it’ll be exciting to find out.
Best Production Design
- Frankenstein – Production Design: Tamara Deverell; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau
- Hamnet – Production Design: Fiona Crombie; Set Decoration: Alice Felton
- Marty Supreme – Production Design: Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Adam Willis
- One Battle After Another – Production Design: Florencia Martin; Set Decoration: Anthony Carlino
- Sinners – Production Design: Hannah Beachler; Set Decoration: Monique Champagne
Will Win: Frankenstein.
Could Win: One Battle After Another or Sinners.
Personal Preference: Frankenstein.
Best Cinematography
- Frankenstein – Dan Laustsen
- Marty Supreme – Darius Khondji
- One Battle After Another – Michael Bauman
- Sinners – Autumn Durald Arkapaw
- Train Dreams – Adolpho Veloso
Will Win: Sinners.
Could Win: One Battle After Another or Train Dreams.
Personal Preference: Sinners or One Battle After Another or Train Dreams.
Best Make-Up and Hairstyling
- Frankenstein – Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel, and Cliona Furey
- Kokuho – Kyoko Toyokawa, Naomi Hibino, and Tadashi Nishimatsu
- Sinners – Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine, and Shunika Terry
- The Smashing Machine – Kazu Hiro, Glen Griffin, and Bjoern Rehbein
- The Ugly Stepsister – Thomas Foldberg and Anne Cathrine Sauerberg
Will Win: Frankenstein.
Could Win: Sinners or The Ugly Stepsister.
Personal Preference: Frankenstein or The Ugly Stepsister.
Best Costume Design
- Avatar: Fire and Ash – Deborah L. Scott
- Frankenstein – Kate Hawley
- Hamnet – Malgosia Turzanska
- Marty Supreme – Miyako Bellizzi
- Sinners – Ruth E. Carter
Will Win: Frankenstein.
Could Win: Hamnet or Sinners.
Personal Preference: Frankenstein.
Best Film Editing
- F1 – Stephen Mirrione
- Marty Supreme – Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
- One Battle After Another – Andy Jurgensen
- Sentimental Value – Olivier Bugge Coutté
- Sinners – Michael P. Shawver
Will Win: One Battle After Another.
Could Win: F1 or Sinners.
Personal Preference: One Battle After Another.
Best Visual Effects
- Avatar: Fire and Ash – Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon, and Daniel Barrett
- F1 – Ryan Tudhope, Nicolas Chevallier, Robert Harrington, and Keith Dawson
- Jurassic World Rebirth – David Vickery, Stephen Aplin, Charmaine Chan, and Neil Corbould
- The Lost Bus – Charlie Noble, David Zaretti, Russell Bowen, and Brandon K. McLaughlin
- Sinners – Michael Ralla, Espen Nordahl, Guido Wolter, and Donnie Dean
Will Win: Avatar: Fire and Ash.
Could Win: F1 or Sinners.
Personal Preference: Avatar: Fire and Ash.
– Article and predictions by Jeffrey Rex Bertelsen.
I'm Jeffrey Rex 