The wait is almost over. In mere hours, stars will be walking the red carpet, Conan O’Brien will take on hosting duties, and, not long thereafter, awards will start to be handed out. But, hey, before we get to that, I still have to tell you which films I think will be victorious on Hollywood’s greatest night. In the race for Best Picture, for instance, it’s been a rollercoaster ride where I, initially, thought Anora would go all the way, only for the Golden Globes (and the Oscar nominations) to indicate that the real fight was between Emilia Pérez and The Brutalist. However, when controversies surrounding toxic social media posts, ill-advised statements, and AI started happening, the Globes’ darlings started to fall into the background. Now, after the guilds and BAFTA, it certainly looks like the big winner of the night will be either Conclave or, the early favorite, Anora. What do I think? Well, let’s get to it.
Best Visual Effects
- Alien: Romulus
- Better Man
- Dune: Part Two
- Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
- Wicked
PREDICTED WINNER: Dune: Part Two.
POSSIBLE ALTERNATE: Alien: Romulus or Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes.
PERSONAL PREFERENCE: Dune: Part Two.
Best Film Editing
- Anora
- The Brutalist
- Conclave
- Emilia Pérez
- Wicked
PREDICTED WINNER: Anora.
POSSIBLE ALTERNATE: Conclave.
This category is just really odd this year. Frankly, I think the right winner would be Dune: Part Two, Kneecap, or Challengers, but since neither of them are nominated, I am a little bit unsure of what to do here. Conclave did win the BAFTA editing award, but is that enough to put it in frontrunner status? I’m not sure. Wicked could perhaps also make sense. But I’m going out on a limb here with my Anora pick, but I don’t feel confident about it.
Best Costume Design
- A Complete Unknown
- Conclave
- Gladiator II
- Nosferatu
- Wicked
PREDICTED WINNER: Wicked.
POSSIBLE ALTERNATE: Nosferatu or Conclave.
PERSONAL PREFERENCE: Wicked or Nosferatu.
Best Make-Up and Hairstyling
- A Different Man
- Emilia Pérez
- Nosferatu
- The Substance
- Wicked
PREDICTED WINNER: The Substance.
POSSIBLE ALTERNATE: A Different Man or Wicked.
PERSONAL PREFERENCE: The Substance or A Different Man.
Best Cinematography
- The Brutalist
- Dune: Part Two
- Emilia Pérez
- Maria
- Nosferatu
PREDICTED WINNER: The Brutalist.
POSSIBLE ALTERNATE: Maria or Nosferatu.
PERSONAL PREFERENCE: Dune: Part Two.
Best Production Design
- The Brutalist
- Conclave
- Dune: Part Two
- Nosferatu
- Wicked
PREDICTED WINNER: Wicked.
POSSIBLE ALTERNATE: The Brutalist.
PERSONAL PREFERENCE: Dune: Part Two.
Best Sound
- A Complete Unknown
- Dune: Part Two
- Emilia Pérez
- Wicked
- The Wild Robot
PREDICTED WINNER: Dune: Part Two.
POSSIBLE ALTERNATE: A Complete Unknown or Wicked.
PERSONAL PREFERENCE: Dune: Part Two.
Best Original Song
- “El Mal,” — Emilia Pérez
- “The Journey,” — The Six Triple Eight
- “Like a Bird,” — Sing Sing
- “Mi Camino,” — Emilia Pérez
- “Never Too Late,” — Elton John: Never Too Late
PREDICTED WINNER: “El Mal,” — Emilia Pérez.
POSSIBLE ALTERNATE: “The Journey,” — The Six Triple Eight.
Best Original Score
- The Brutalist
- Conclave
- Emilia Pérez
- Wicked
- The Wild Robot
PREDICTED WINNER: The Brutalist.
POSSIBLE ALTERNATE: Conclave.
Best Animated Short
- Beautiful Men
- In the Shadow of the Cypress
- Magic Candies
- Wander to Wonder
- Yuck!
PREDICTED WINNER: Wander to Wonder.
POSSIBLE ALTERNATE: Yuck!.
Best Live-Action Short
- A Lien
- Anuja
- I’m Not a Robot
- The Last Ranger
- The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
PREDICTED WINNER: A Lien.
POSSIBLE ALTERNATE: The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent.
Best Documentary Short
- Death by Numbers
- I Am Ready, Warden
- Incident
- Instruments of a Beating Heart
- The Only Girl in the Orchestra
PREDICTED WINNER: I Am Ready, Warden.
POSSIBLE ALTERNATE: The Only Girl in the Orchestra.
Best Documentary Feature
- Black Box Diaries
- No Other Land
- Porcelain War
- Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat
- Sugarcane
PREDICTED WINNER: No Other Land.
POSSIBLE ALTERNATE: Porcelain War.
Best International Feature
- Emilia Pérez
- Flow
- The Girl With the Needle
- I’m Still Here
- The Seed of the Sacred Fig
PREDICTED WINNER: I’m Still Here.
POSSIBLE ALTERNATE: Emilia Pérez.
I’m going with the underdog here, even though it’s up against a Netflix juggernaut with 13 nominations. I think the Gascón controversy paired with the Brazilian campaign approach has really flipped this race around. Time will tell.
Best Animated Feature
- Flow
- Inside Out 2
- Memoir of a Snail
- Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
- The Wild Robot
PREDICTED WINNER: The Wild Robot.
POSSIBLE ALTERNATE: Flow.
Best Adapted Screenplay
- A Complete Unknown
- Conclave
- Emilia Pérez
- Nickel Boys
- Sing Sing
PREDICTED WINNER: Conclave.
POSSIBLE ALTERNATE: Nickel Boys.
PERSONAL PREFERENCE: Conclave.
Conclave didn’t win at WGA, but it wasn’t eligible. However, it did win at BAFTA and at Critics’ Choice, and it feels like a pretty safe bet to win.
Best Original Screenplay
- Anora
- The Brutalist
- A Real Pain
- September 5
- The Substance
PREDICTED WINNER: Anora.
POSSIBLE ALTERNATE: A Real Pain.
PERSONAL PREFERENCE: The Substance, A Real Pain, or Anora.
This one is a little bit tricky. A Real Pain has been the screenplay darling at BAFTA and Indie Spirits, but at WGA it lost to Anora. Ultimately, I’m going with Anora here because of the WGA win and the fact that A Real Pain didn’t have enough passion around it to land a Best Picture nomination. If, however, Anora loses here and in Editing, well, then it’s time to start worrying about Best Picture.
Best Supporting Actor
- Yura Borisov — Anora
- Kieran Culkin — A Real Pain
- Edward Norton — A Complete Unknown
- Guy Pearce — The Brutalist
- Jeremy Strong — The Apprentice
PREDICTED WINNER: Kieran Culkin.
POSSIBLE ALTERNATE: Guy Pearce.
PERSONAL PREFERENCE: Kieran Culkin or Jeremy Strong.
I would be shocked if Kieran Culkin didn’t win. He is sweeping.
Best Supporting Actress
- Monica Barbaro — A Complete Unknown
- Ariana Grande — Wicked
- Felicity Jones — The Brutalist
- Isabella Rossellini — Conclave
- Zoe Saldaña — Emilia Pérez
PREDICTED WINNER: Zoe Saldaña.
POSSIBLE ALTERNATE: Ariana Grande.
PERSONAL PREFERENCE: Ariana Grande.
I would be shocked if Zoe Saldaña didn’t win. She is sweeping.
Best Actor
- Adrien Brody — The Brutalist
- Timothée Chalamet — A Complete Unknown
- Colman Domingo — Sing Sing
- Ralph Fiennes — Conclave
- Sebastian Stan — The Apprentice
PREDICTED WINNER: Adrien Brody.
POSSIBLE ALTERNATE: Timothée Chalamet.
PERSONAL PREFERENCE: Ralph Fiennes.
Look, Chalamet winning SAG is pretty huge regardless of the fact that it was announced after Oscar voting had closed. He could win his first Oscar. However, the fact that Brody has won everywhere else makes me relatively confident that Brody is getting his second win here.
Best Actress
- Cynthia Erivo — Wicked
- Karla Sofía Gascón — Emilia Pérez
- Mikey Madison — Anora
- Demi Moore — The Substance
- Fernanda Torres — I’m Still Here
PREDICTED WINNER: Demi Moore.
POSSIBLE ALTERNATE: Mikey Madison.
PERSONAL PREFERENCE: Demi Moore or Mikey Madison.
This is the toughest category of the night. Fernanda Torres has a lot of online support and could be a huge surprise winner here. However, it does feel like it’s Demi versus Mikey. Demi has the strong comeback-career narrative along with wins at SAG and the Globes (and the likely actress-makeup package), whereas Mikey has the ingénue narrative along with the huge BAFTA win. It feels weird to predict Demi Moore to win even though I’m so gung-ho for Anora in other categories, but I just think the narrative is too strong with Moore for Madison to overcome. But I do think it is very close and, frankly, I’d be happy with either of them winning — they’re both great.
Best Director
- Sean Baker — Anora
- Brady Corbet — The Brutalist
- James Mangold — A Complete Unknown
- Jacques Audiard — Emilia Pérez
- Coralie Fargeat — The Substance
PREDICTED WINNER: Sean Baker.
POSSIBLE ALTERNATE: Brady Corbet.
PERSONAL PREFERENCE: Sean Baker or Coralie Fargeat.
I think this is pretty clearly Sean Baker following his DGA win. Now, sure, Corbet did win at BAFTA and the Globes, but his film hasn’t been as strong as you’d expect in the remaining precursors. Also, while, yes, the SAG wins were announced after Oscar voting ended, the fact that The Brutalist lost Best Actor at SAG makes me think that there isn’t a lot of passion for the film. That said, he is clearly the only other likely winner here, so, if Anora is a total mirage, then Corbet could have a good night after all.
Best Picture
- Anora
- The Brutalist
- A Complete Unknown
- Conclave
- Dune: Part Two
- Emilia Pérez
- I’m Still Here
- Nickel Boys
- The Substance
- Wicked
PREDICTED WINNER: Anora.
POSSIBLE ALTERNATE: Conclave.
PERSONAL PREFERENCE: Dune: Part Two, The Substance, or Anora.
Like I mentioned in the introduction, it’s been a bit of a rollercoaster ride. Despite its huge nomination tally, Emilia Pérez doesn’t have the best odds given the Gascon controversy of it all. Conclave feels very strong given the very likely screenplay win and the top prizes it won with SAG and BAFTA. However, Anora‘s wins at PGA, DGA, and WGA make it the clear frontrunner now, and I think it is the most likely winner, despite BAFTA going in another direction.
– Article and predictions written by Jeffrey Rex Bertelsen.
I'm Jeffrey Rex 