Who Will Be Nominated? – Final Predictions | 97th Oscars

It’s finally that time again. Tomorrow, AMPAS is announcing its list of nominees for the upcoming 97th Academy Awards. So, of course, now is the time to fill in your final Oscars nominations predictions. This is exactly what I’ve done here. Below you’ll see what I’m predicting along with a few comments here and there. The choices are ranked from either one to five or one to ten based on how confident I am that something is getting nominated with 1 being the most confident. Let’s get to it.

---

The Shorts

Live-Action Short

1. The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
2. The Masterpiece
3. An Orange from Jaffa
4. Anuja
5. Dovecote

Documentary Short

1. I Am Ready, Warden
2. Once Upon a Time in Ukraine
3. Makayla’s Voice: A Letter to the World
4. Death by Numbers
5. Incident

Animated Short

1. Beautiful Men
2. A Bear Named Wojtek
3. Yuck!
4. Wander to Wonder
5. A Crab in the Pool

Okay, let’s just be honest here, I have not had the opportunity to watch these short films. I think you’ll find that such is the case with most people who try to predict these things. If I had the opportunity to watch them all, I would. Anyway, thus, these choices are often based on pure guesswork.

---

Special Flicks

International Film

1. Emilia Pérez
2. I’m Still Here
3. The Seed of the Sacred Fig
4. The Girl with the Needle
5. Kneecap

I feel pretty confident about the first three. The latter two could theoretically be swapped out with Flow, How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies, or Vermiglio.

Documentary Feature

1. No Other Land
2. Daughters
3. Sugarcane
4. Black Box Diaries
5. Will & Harper

Dahomey is also knocking on the door here and could take the star-led doc’s spot.

Animated Feature

1. Flow
2. The Wild Robot
3. Inside Out 2
4. Memoir of a Snail
5. Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

For quite some time, I had Moana 2 in that fifth spot, but given the poor to lukewarm reception, I’m leaning towards something else currently.

---

Below-The-Line

Visual Effects

1. Dune: Part Two
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
3. Better Man
4. Gladiator II
5. Wicked

Sound

1. Dune: Part Two
2. Gladiator II
3. Wicked
4. A Complete Unknown
5. Emilia Pérez

Song

1. “El Mal,” – Emilia Pérez
2. “Mi Camino,” – Emilia Pérez
3. “The Journey,” – The Six Triple Eight
4. “Kiss the Sky,” – The Wild Robot
5. “Compress/Repress,” – Challengers

Score

1. The Brutalist
2. Conclave
3. Challengers
4. Emilia Pérez
5. The Wild Robot

Production Design

1. Dune: Part Two
2. Wicked
3. Conclave
4. The Brutalist
5. Nosferatu

Make-Up and Hairstyling

1. The Substance
2. Wicked
3. Nosferatu
4. Dune: Part Two
5. A Different Man

Editing

1. Dune: Part Two
2. Anora
3. Conclave
4. The Brutalist
5. Challengers

Costume Design

1. Wicked
2. Dune: Part Two
3. Conclave
4. Nosferatu
5. Gladiator II

Cinematography

1. The Brutalist
2. Dune: Part Two
3. Conclave
4. Nosferatu
5. Nickel Boys

---

Above-The-Line

Original Screenplay

1. Anora
2. A Real Pain
3. The Brutalist
4. The Substance
5. September 5

There are a lot of signs pointing to the notion that both screenplay categories are mostly locked. Honestly, in original, I am only really unsure about the fifth spot. Hard Truths, Challengers, or, frankly, even Heretic could get in here. But September 5 just seems more likely given the idea that it’s probably pretty close to a Best Picture nomination. But, man, I would love it if Challengers got in here.

Adapted Screenplay

1. Conclave
2. Emilia Pérez
3. Sing Sing
4. A Complete Unknown
5. Nickel Boys

If I am to use my head here, these are the five nominees. I say this given the frustrating absence of Dune: Part Two in above the line nominations with many other precursors. But, truth be told, I really want to be gutsy and put it in. But my mind is telling me: “No.”

Supporting Actor

1. Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain
2. Guy Pearce – The Brutalist
3. Yura Borisov – Anora
4. Edward Norton – A Complete Unknown
5. Clarence Maclin – Sing Sing

I think Jeremy Strong, Denzel Washington, and, frankly, even Jonathan Bailey are all knocking on the door, but I think fans of Sing Sing will have a good nomination morning.

Supporting Actress

1. Zoe Saldaña – Emilia Pérez
2. Ariana Grande – Wicked
3. Isabella Rossellini – Conclave
4. Felicity Jones – The Brutalist
5. Jamie Lee Curtis – The Lasr Showgirl

This category is really up in the air. I think Curtis is getting in despite her rise this awards season being quite late, but I also think the SAG five won’t match. Barbaro could get in, if A Complete Unknown is really as popular as some precursors have suggested. Rossellini will probably get in despite many feeling like it is a small performance because she is beloved and because there seems to be a lot of love for Conclave this awards season. While I don’t think it’s as likely as it should be, I would love to see Margaret Qualley be nominated. Could Selena Gomez get in? Sure, and I did consider it, and if she does get in, then maybe – just maybe – the race for best picture isn’t as close as we may think.

Actor

1. Adrien Brody – The Brutalist
2. Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Unknown
3. Ralph Fiennes – Conclave
4. Colman Domingo – Sing Sing
5. Sebastian Stan – The Apprentice

I think the top three are locks, and, as you can tell, I feel pretty confident that Sing Sing will have a good nomination morning, so I also think Domingo is relatively certain here. But who is at five? Daniel Craig did get in with SAG, but the fact that he missed with BAFTA is just a huge head-scratcher. This is why I think Sebastian Stan will take that fifth spot. The Apprentice was very popular with BAFTA, and also got strong nominations with the Golden Globes where Stan got to give a speech for A Different Man. I think the story that no other actor wanted to sit down with him for a conversation on ‘Actors on Actors’ about the film during his campaign put a lot of eyes on this film, which could be beneficial for him. Perhaps it’ll even be seen as a political vote. Time will tell.

Actress

1. Demi Moore – The Substance
2. Mikey Madison – Anora
3. Karla Sofia Gascón – Emilia Pérez
4. Cynthia Erivo – Wicked
5. Pamela Anderson – The Last Showgirl

Top four seems locked, but, frankly, that fifth spot is wide open. If Netflix’s campaign is strong enough, then, sure, Jolie could go in, but I don’t see it happening right now. There is a lot of love for Fernanda Torres, and it would be a cool nomination, but I think she’ll be on the outside looking in. Could Marianne-Jean Baptiste or Nicole Kidman get in? Definitely, but I think the late rise for Jamie Lee Curtis’ campaign actually means more people will look at Pamela Anderson, who has a strong narrative.

Director

1. Brady Corbet – The Brutalist
2. Sean Baker – Anora
3. Jacques Audiard – Emilia Pérez
4. Edward Berger – Conclave
5. Coralie Fargeat – The Substance

It is absolutely ridiculous that Denis Villeneuve isn’t a lock for this category. Currently, given the lack of DGA and Golden Globes nominations, Villeneuve, who did get nominated with BAFTA, seems to be on the outside looking in with AMPAS, which I think is incredibly unfair given the achievement Dune: Part Two is. I am considering putting up an article on this in the days to come, if Villeneuve doesn’t get in here — but I really hope he makes it in. But, frankly, these five feel pretty locked. Yes, RaMell Ross, James Mangold, and Payal Kapadia could get in, but I just don’t see who they’d knock out, to be frank, given the support for the first four films and the passion that, it seems, is there for Fargeat and her film. We’ll see.

Picture

1. Emilia Pérez
2. Anora
3. Conclave
4. The Brutalist
5. Wicked
6. A Complete Unknown
7. The Substance
8. Dune: Part Two
9. A Real Pain
10. Sing Sing

To me, Pérez, whether you like it or not, is realtively far ahead in the race for the top award. The Brutalist is getting a lot of AI-centric criticism in recent days, Anora has not been as successful this awards season as I once expected (when I saw it, I was confident it would go all the way and win here). Conclave feels like it has a lot of support but maybe not enough passion to go all the way. Spots five to eight also feel pretty locked. Nine and ten are toss ups. Nickel Boys and September 5 are knocking on the door, but I think the passion for Sing Sing and A Real Pain is enough to get them in.

– Article and Predictions by Jeffrey Rex Bertelsen.