Nominations Predictions | 96th Academy Awards

Tomorrow, AMPAS is announcing its list of nominees for the upcoming 96th Academy Awards. So, now is the time to fill in your final Oscars nominations predictions! Below you’ll see what I’m predicting along with a few comments here and there. The choices are ranked from either one to five or one to ten based on how confident I am that something is getting nominated with 1 being the most confident.

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The Shorts

Live-Action Short

1. The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
2. The After
3. Strange Way of Life
4. Red, White, and Blue
5. The Shepherd

Documentary Short

1. The ABCs of Book Banning
2. The Last Repair Shop
3. The Barber of Little Rock
4. Last Song from Kabul
5. Camp Courage

Animated Short

1. Once Upon a Studio
2. Pete
3. Letter to a Pig
4. WAR IS OVER! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko
5. A Kind of Testament

I’d love to be able to say that I feel like I am an expert on the short film categories, but, just like in most years, that isn’t the case. While I’ve seen a couple of these, I haven’t seen enough of them to be able to claim that. Rather, I’m basing my predictions on gut feelings, trends I’ve noticed, and star power. I think there is a chance that some of the star names in the live-action category will work against those projects, but, at the same time, this also feels like a year where there are so many star-branded short films, so surely one or some of them will be there. It certainly does feel like Wes Anderson’s first Oscar could be with a short film this year, doesn’t it?

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Special Flicks

International Film

1. The Zone of Interest (UK)
2. Fallen Leaves (Finland)
3. 20 Days in Mariupol (Ukraine)
4. Society of the Snow (Spain)
5. The Taste of Things (France)

For months and months and months, it’s been clear for anyone with a finger on the pulse of cinema that The Zone of Interest and Anatomy of a Fall would be huge contenders for this category, but then France went with another film with The Taste of Things (not the first time that France has rebelled and gone against the most popular film) as their selection. Nevertheless, Anatomy of a Fall is a huge contender for the top categories this year, and there is a world where the other French flick misses out on this category because of it. Perhaps Io Capitano, Totem, or The Teacher’s Lounge could sneak in? I really hope Denmark’s The Promised Land makes it in, but it’s not trending in that direction this year.

Documentary Feature

1. 20 Days in Mariupol
2. Beyond Utopia
3. American Symphony
4. Still: A Michael J. Fox Story
5. Apolonia, Apolonia

That’s the second nomination I’m predicting for 20 Days in Mariupol, which is a hugely important film that is also tough to watch. I saw it a while back and the review is on its way, and you can expect it later in the week, once I find more time for the blog. But, really, it is a really strong contender, and I would be shocked if it didn’t make it in. At five, I’m going with a partly Danish documentary that I have heard great things about and which I think may have snuck under the radar in the build-up to nomination morning. It’s a bit of a risky prediction, but, hey, sometimes you’ve got to take some chances.

Animated Feature

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
2. The Boy and the Heron
3. Nimona
4. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
5. Elemental

This year, the top two contenders on my list will duke it out, and it’ll be interesting to see if the Japanese critical darling can take down the equally popular American animated superhero flick. I think, for nomination morning, the most interesting thing in the category is whether or not Disney/Pixar will make it in. I’m guessing that one of their films will, but I would not be surprised to learn otherwise.

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Below-The-Line

Visual Effects

1. The Creator
2. Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 3
3. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning
4. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
5. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

Sound

1. Oppenheimer
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. The Zone of Interest
4. Ferrari
5. The Killer

Song

1. “What Was I Made For?,” — Barbie
2. “I’m Just Ken,” — Barbie
3. “Road to Freedom,” — Rustin
4. “The Fire Inside,” — Flamin’ Hot
5. “Meet in the Middle,” — Flora and Son

Score

1. Oppenheimer
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Poor Things
4. The Zone of Interest
5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Production Design

1. Barbie
2. Poor Things
3. Oppenheimer
4. Killers of the Flower Moon
5. Asteroid City

Make-Up and Hairstyling

1. Poor Things
2. Maestro
3. Golda
4. Oppenheimer
5. The Last Voyage of the Demeter

Editing

1. Oppenheimer
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. The Holdovers
4. Barbie
5. Poor Things

Costume Design

1. Poor Things
2. Barbie
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Napoleon
5. Oppenheimer

Cinematography

1. Oppenheimer
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Poor Things
4. The Zone of Interest
5. Maestro

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Above-The-Line

Original Screenplay

1. The Holdovers
2. Anatomy of a Fall
3. Past Lives
4. Maestro
5. May December

Adapted Screenplay

1. Barbie
2. Oppenheimer
3. Poor Things
4. American Fiction
5. Killers of the Flower Moon

Supporting Actor

1. Robert Downey, Jr. — Oppenheimer
2. Ryan Gosling — Barbie
3. Robert De Niro — Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Mark Ruffalo — Poor Things
5. Willem Dafoe — Poor Things

Melton, Sessa, or Brown could knock out one of the Poor Things boys, but I, personally, think that film is so strong that both will get in.

Supporting Actress

1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph — The Holdovers
2. Emily Blunt — Oppenheimer
3. Danielle Brooks — The Color Purple
4. Sandra Hüller — The Zone of Interest
5. Julianne Moore — May December

If Zone is as strong of a contender as people seem to believe, then Hüller will almost definitely be a double nominee. I think the fifth slot is very open, and I’m really unsure as to what to go with. I ended up going with May December, even though it seems somewhat weak in the awards season. I could also see Rosamund Pike get in for Saltburn or America Ferrara get in for Barbie. What about Penelope Cruz? Could happen.

Actor

1. Cillian Murphy — Oppenheimer
2. Paul Giamatti — The Holdovers
3. Bradley Cooper — Maestro
4. Jeffrey Wright — American Fiction
5. Leonardo DiCaprio — Killers of the Flower Moon

Murphy is the odds-on favorite to win, but if he misses the BAFTA or SAG win, then Giamatti could overtake him in the race. At the other end of the table, I only really feel unsure about DiCaprio, which would’ve shocked me months ago. But with no SAG or BAFTA nomination for Leo, he’d actually be a small surprise to feature here. Colman Domingo, Andrew Scott, or, possibly, Barry Keoghan could sneak in here. But I’m going for Leo because I think there is more passion for his film than some of the other contenders.

Actress

1. Emma Stone — Poor Things
2. Sandra Hüller — Anatomy of a Fall
3. Lily Gladstone — Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Margot Robbie — Barbie
5. Carey Mulligan — Maestro

Had you asked me a couple of weeks ago, Gladstone would’ve been a lock for no. 1 in my predictions. Then two things happened, first, Gladstone was snubbed by the BAFTAs, and, second, I finally saw Poor Things, which features an incredible performance from Stone. Gladstone should still make it in, but I’m not sure she’ll win anymore.

Director

1. Christopher Nolan — Oppenheimer
2. Martin Scorsese — Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Yorgos Lanthimos — Poor Things
4. Alexander Payne — The Holdovers
5. Jonathan Glazer — The Zone of Interest

Let’s make one thing clear: this line-up would infuriate a lot of people — and for good reason. An all-male line-up in a year where Celine Song, Justine Triet, and Greta Gerwig made some of the most critically acclaimed and popular films would be a disgrace. Somehow, I only really feel confident about no. 1. Scorsese and Lanthimos should be certain for a nomination, but Scorsese and Lanthimos somehow both missed a BAFTA nomination. With the rise of The Holdovers, Payne could sneak in and knock out another top contender, and given its strength it would be surprising if he didn’t. In spite of the DGA-five being quite strong, there is a strong believe that Glazer will still make it in. I’m not entirely sure given that international voters may be more inclined to go with Lanthimos or Triet. In any case, if one of the above misses, Gerwig or Triet will definitely be in.

Picture

1. Oppenheimer
2. The Holdovers
3. Poor Things
4. Barbie
5. Killers of the Flower Moon
6. Anatomy of a Fall
7. Maestro
8. Past Lives
9. American Fiction
10. The Zone of Interest

Right now, it certainly feels like Oppenheimer is an insanely strong favorite, and, instead, the main question ought to be whether a formidable contender can arise from the list of nominations. For a while, it seemed like that could be Barbie, but it doesn’t feel like there is the same kind of support behind that film that one originally thought. However, I do think this could all change if, as I have predicted, it ends up being an all-male line-up in Best Director. Maybe Barbie becomes a true contender again, maybe the female-led Poor Things overcomes its provocative aspects to take down Nolan’s film, or maybe Anatomy of a Fall is even bigger than initially imagined. But, right now, the simple pleasures and comforts of The Holdovers seem to make it the primary contender. At the other end of the ten, the big question is which film would be no. 11 — i.e., what film could surprise by showing up on nomination morning? I think it could be either The Color Purple or Saltburn, and if it is Saltburn, then Keoghan could surprise and feature in the lead actor category.

– Article and Predictions by Jeffrey Rex Bertelsen.