Nomination voting is over. Many precursor nominations have already happened, and now we are just waiting for the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences to announce what stars and films they want to honor. The nominations will be announced on January 22nd, so, today, I will present my final update of my Oscar nomination predictions.
Now, I should mention that I will not be predicting the documentary short or live-action short categories, but I actually have been able to see all of the animated shorts on the shortlist, so I will try to predict that category. Without further ado, let’s get to it.
Best Animated Short
- Bao – Pixar
- Lost & Found – Andrew Goldsmith & Bradley Slabe
- Bilby – DreamWorks Animation
- Weekends – Trevor Jimenez
- Animal Behaviour – National Film Board of Canada
– So, I actually like all of the short films that I predict to be nominated. But I have not predicted my favorite shortlisted animated short — Late Afternoon. For some reason, I think that film will be overshadowed even though it moved me. It isn’t as fun as Animal Behaviour or as impressive as Lost & Found, and I suspect Bao will actually overshadow Late Afternoon. I hope I’m wrong.
Best Documentary Feature
- Won’t You Be My Neighbor? – Dir. Morgan Neville.
- RBG – Dir. Betsy West & Julie Cohen.
- Three Identical Strangers – Dir. Tim Wardle.
- Free Solo – Dir. Jimmy Chin & Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi.
- Minding the Gap – Dir. Bing Liu.
– The unfortunate truth here is that I haven’t seen any of these films, as I don’t think any of them have had premieres in Denmark yet. Personally, I’d love to see Shirkers get a nomination here, but it’s going to be tough.
Best Animated Feature
- Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse – Sony Pictures
- Incredibles 2 – Disney/Pixar
- Isle of Dogs – Fox Searchlight
- Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck-It Ralph 2 – Disney
- Mirai – Toho
– Spider-Man has become the frontrunner during the precursor awards, and it is well-deserved. That fifth spot is the tough one. It’s either The Grinch or Mirai.
Best Foreign Language Film
- Roma – Mexican
- Cold War – Polish
- Shoplifters – Japanese
- Burning – South Korean
- The Guilty – Danish
– Roma is the clear and obvious frontrunner with Cold War trying to catch up to it (and, by the looks of it, it’s going to be an actual battle between the two in more than just one category). I am taking a chance on The Guilty. Maybe it’s just because I’m Danish that I have hope, but I genuinely think it’s a fantastic film.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
- Border – TriArt Films
- VICE – Annapurna Pictures
- Black Panther – Disney
– Border is a Swedish film that, like previous Swedish features before it, will likely get a make-up nomination. Panther and Vice should get the final two spots unless the Academy got creative.
Best Original Score
- If Beale Street Could Talk – Nicholas Britell.
- First Man – Justin Hurwitz.
- Black Panther – Ludwig Göransson.
- Mary Poppins Returns – Marc Shaiman.
- BlackKklansman – Terence Blanchard.
– I feel pretty confident about these five scores, I’m just confused by the order of the top two spots. Though my personal favorite First Man won at the Golden Globes and at Critics’ Choice, it wasn’t nominated for the BAFTAs. That’s why I’m not ready to put it at one, even though I probably should. Isle of Dogs is my alternate for the fifth spot.
Best Original Song
- “Shallow,” – A Star is Born
- “The Place Where Lost Things Go,” – Mary Poppins Returns
- “All the Stars,” – Black Panther
- “Revelation,” – Boy Erased
- “When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings” – The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
– I’m still unsure about what song they’ll go with for Mary Poppins Returns. Also, my fifth pick is more of a passion pick than anything. I desperately want Scruggs to get at least one nomination, and I love that song. Dolly Parton’s “Girl in the Movies” (Dumplin’) is what my mind is telling me to pick at #5, but I’m going with my heart.
Best Sound Editing
- Black Panther
- First Man
- A Quiet Place
- Ready Player One
- Mission: Impossible – Fallout
Best Sound Mixing
- A Star is Born
- Bohemian Rhapsody
- First Man
- Roma
- A Quiet Place
Best Production Design
- The Favourite
- Mary Poppins Returns
- First Man
- Roma
- Black Panther
Best Visual Effects
- Avengers: Infinity War
- Ready Player One
- Black Panther
- First Man
- Solo: A Star Wars Story
– As I was finishing this write-up, I ended up taking Mary Poppins Returns out of the fifth spot. Is it more of a hunch than anything else? Yeah, probably. But I just have a hard time seeing the Star Wars film missing. Maybe I’m wrong. I would be really upset if First Man missed here, it has to get in.
Best Costume Design
- The Favourite – Sandy Powell
- Black Panther – Ruth E. Carter
- Mary Poppins Returns – Sandy Powell
- Mary Queen of Scots – Alexandra Byrne
- Bohemian Rhapsody – Julian Day
Best Film Editing
- First Man – Tom Cross
- VICE – Hank Corwin
- A Star is Born – Jay Cassidy
- Roma – Alfonso Cuarón & Adam Gough
- BLACKkKLANSMAN – Barry Alexander Brown
Best Cinematography
- Roma – Alfonso Cuarón
- A Star is Born – Matthew Libatique
- If Beale Street Could Talk – James Laxton
- First Man – Linus Sandgren
- Cold War – Lukasz Zal
Best Adapted Screenplay
- Spike Lee, David Rabinowitz, Charlie Wachtel, & Kevin Willmott – BLACKkKLANSMAN
- Nicole Holofcener – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
- Will Fetters, Bradley Cooper, & Eric Roth – A Star is Born
- Barry Jenkins – If Beale Street Could Talk
- Ryan Coogler & Joe Robert Cole – Black Panther
Best Original Screenplay
- Alfonso Cuarón – Roma
- Adam McKay – VICE
- Deborah Davis & Tony McNamara – The Favourite
- Peter Farrelly, Brian Hayes Currie, & Nick Vallelonga – Green Book
- Bo Burnham – Eighth Grade
– I would love to see First Reformed get a nomination here, but I just don’t think the Academy has a lot of love for that film, which I do love.
Best Supporting Actress
- Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk
- Amy Adams – VICE
- Emma Stone – The Favourite
- Claire Foy – First Man
- Rachel Weisz – The Favourite
Best Supporting Actor
- Mahershala Ali – Green Book
- Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
- Timothée Chalamet – Beautiful Boy
- Adam Driver – BLACKkKLANSMAN
- Michael B. Jordan – Black Panther
– Could Sam Elliott take Jordan’s spot? Absolutely, but that fifth spot is my passion pick, and I love Jordan in that film.
Best Actress in a Leading Role
- Glenn Close – The Wife
- Lady Gaga – A Star is Born
- Olivia Colman – The Favourite
- Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
- Yalitza Aparicio – Roma
– That top three is locked. I still think Viola Davis or Emily Blunt could take the fifth spot away from Yalitza Aparicio. I really hope Toni Collette gets in, but it’s not likely to happen.
Best Actor in a Leading Role
- Christian Bale – VICE
- Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody
- Bradley Cooper – A Star is Born
- Viggo Mortensen – Green Book
- John David Washington – BlackKklansman
– Again, that top three is locked. I don’t think Viggo is losing his spot, and, even though I’d love to see it happen, I doubt Ethan Hawke will get a nomination. Also, I think Ryan Gosling should’ve been a lock, but he just isn’t getting the support he needs.
Best Director
- Alfonso Cuarón – Roma
- Bradley Cooper – A Star is Born
- Spike Lee – BLACKkKLANSMAN
- Yorgos Lanthimos – The Favourite
- Pawel Pawlikowski – Cold War
– I would be so incredibly happy if Damien Chazelle got a nomination here, but, yeah, I wouldn’t bet on it. I think it’s more likely that Adam McKay gets a nomination here.
Best Picture
- A Star is Born – Warner Bros. Pictures.
- Roma – Netflix.
- Green Book – Universal Pictures.
- Bohemian Rhapsody – 20th Century Fox.
- BLACKkKLANSMAN – Focus Features.
- The Favourite – Fox Searchlight.
- VICE – Annapurna Pictures.
- Black Panther – Marvel Studios.
- First Man – Universal Pictures.
- If Beale Street Could Talk – Annapurna Pictures.
– I’m going to be dancing for at least a couple of minutes if First Man gets a nomination here. I want it to happen so much. So much. But the thing is, how many nominations are we getting? I’m thinking we’ll end up with eight, so that could be tough.
Predicted Totals (Only for films with more than one predicted nomination)
- 10 – Black Panther.
- 9 – A Star is Born, First Man, Roma.
- 8 – The Favourite.
- 7 – BlackKklansman.
- 6 – VICE.
- 5 – If Beale Street Could Talk.
- 4 – Bohemian Rhapsody, Green Book, Mary Poppins Returns.
- 3 – Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Cold War.
- 2 – A Quiet Place, Ready Player One.
– I genuinely think it’s possible that Black Panther could end with a complete shut-out, but I’m going for it with a whopping ten nominations (no guts, no glory). The Academy wanted to honor popular films, and now they get a chance to do so. Am I a little bit too trigger-happy with First Man? Maybe, but I want it to happen so much. This is my heart forcing my hand.
Do you have a surprise nomination that you’re willing to predict here? Sound off in the comments.
– Jeffrey Rex Bertelsen.
I'm Jeffrey Rex 