Box Office Predictions – March 2018

BP box off v2

The Oscars are over, but Black Panther is still making money. Lots and lots of money. But March has a bunch of new releases that studios like Disney, Universal, and, especially, Warner Bros. are betting on to be successes. But is anyone really excited about any of them? Let’s discuss.

MAJOR NORTH AMERICAN OPENING WEEKEND PREDICTIONS – March:

  • A Wrinkle in Time – Disney – March 9th, 2018 – $39 million
  • Tomb Raider – Warner Bros. – March 16th, 2018 – $26 million
  • Pacific Rim Uprising – Universal – March 23rd, 2018 – $21 million
  • Ready Player One – Warner Bros. – March 29th, 2018 – $45 million

I’m honestly surprised by the fact that we have hardly heard anything from critics regarding A Wrinkle in Time. Sure, there have been some mixed social media reactions, but not at all the amount of reactions I expected to be out there already. I think there is a chance that this is a bit of a disappointment for Disney. I’m projecting this film to do just a little bit better than Tomorrowland, which opened to $33 million.

I love Alicia Vikander. I think she is a very good actress, who just happened to win her first Oscar for the wrong performance and the wrong film. But, let’s be honest, she is not Angelina Jolie. I’m not sure the average moviegoer knows who Vikander is. She is not Angelina Jolie, who played Lara Croft in two Tomb Raider films in the 2000s. That first Lara Croft film did really well, and the sequel? Not so much. I don’t have faith in this new Tomb Raider film either.

I have no idea how a sequel for Pacific Rim was green-lit without securing Del Toro as the director of the sequel. Sure, it did really well outside of the States, but in America it fell apart. There was no buzz about it. I really want John Boyega to become a star outside of Star Wars too, but I just don’t see it happening with this film.

I want Ready Player One to be something special. I want Spielberg to have a mainstream, rewatchable hit. His historical films are solid — some of them are amazing — but I want to see popular-Spielberg back. But is anyone excited for Ready Player One? Have they actually shown us anything interesting about the movie other than neat references to other films? I’m not sure. This could be a bomb for Warner Bros., if they don’t know how to sell it.


Box Office Report

MAJOR OPENING WEEKENDS – February:

  • Fifty Shades Freed – Universal – February 9th, 2018 – $38 million (+4)
  • Peter Rabbit – Sony / Columbia – February 9th, 2018 – $25 million (+9)
  • Black Panther – Disney – February 16th, 2018 – $202 million (+45)

Out of the way, Universal and Columbia — Disney just broke the record books! That’s right. Broke. The. Record. Books. The impact of Black Panther‘s opening was as awesome as the ignition power of a lightsaber. Black Panther‘s opening weekend, its word of mouth, and its box office legs resemble the impact of the Star Wars saga films. Just two months after The Last Jedi opened, Black Panther put another dent in the box office.

Do note that the $202 million opening weekend figure only takes the three-day weekend into account, and not the four-day figure that some outlets reported. But don’t let that fact fool you, $202 million is absolutely insane. It is the second biggest opening weekend of ANY Marvel Cinematic Universe film, only beaten by Marvel’s The Avengers‘ opening weekend figures back in 2012.

It is the best opening weekend EVER in February, and it is also the fifth biggest opening weekend EVER (not adjusted for inflation). Only The Force Awakens, The Last Jedi, The Avengers, and Jurassic World had stronger opening weekends. Even my prediction would have been fantastic for the film. Extraordinary performance.


THE BILLION DOLLAR CLUB — 2018 Edition:

Okay. It’s happening. It looks like Marvel Studios’ Black Panther has already after its third weekend made $900 million. Not only is that just absolutely amazing and unexpected, it now looks certain to become the first member of 2018’s Billion Dollar Club! Not only that, it’ll likely cross the billion dollar mark before the beginning of April. Amazing.

– Jeffrey Rex Bertelsen

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