This month Box Office Predictions is all about the next big event movie — Marvel Studios’ Black Panther — which has followed in the footsteps of 2016’s Deadpool by opening in early February. Will it be as big of a success as the Merc with a Mouth’s first film was? Let’s talk about it.
NORTH AMERICAN OPENING WEEKEND PREDICTIONS:
- Fifty Shades Freed – Universal – February 9th, 2018 – $34 million
- Peter Rabbit – Sony / Columbia – February 9th, 2018 – $16 million
- Black Panther – Disney – February 16th, 2018 – $157 million
If you want in-depth analyzed predictions of Peter Rabbit and Fifty Shades Freed‘s opening weekends, then you should look elsewhere. This month is all about Black Panther, which I had originally — in my preview of 2018 — predicted to open with around $114 million in its opening weekend.
In that preview, I mentioned that the only first solo film in the MCU to have opened to more than $100 million is Spider-Man: Homecoming. Black Panther is definitely joining that club this month. But $114 million is a bit too low of a prediction, actually.
The record opening weekend for February is Deadpool‘s $132 million in 2016, and, incredibly, I think Black Panther is going to break that record (and then some). Right now, I am comfortable predicting it to open with a slightly bigger opening weekend than what Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2 opened to last year ($146 million), but I could see it, potentially, opening with a better opening weekend than what Iron Man 3 opened to in 2013 ($174 million).
MAJOR OPENING WEEKENDS – January:
- Insidious: The Last Key – Universal – January 5th, 2018 – $29 million (+15)
- The Commuter – Lionsgate – January 12th, 2018 – $13 million (-3)
- Maze Runner: The Death Cure – Fox – January 26th, 2018 – $24 million (+6)
I don’t really have much to say about The Commuter or Maze Runner — their opening weekend totals aren’t all that surprising, even if I was a couple of millions off in my predictions. But I should probably talk about Insidious, which proved me wrong.
You never doubt Jason Blum, when it comes to small budget horror films. This Insidious sequel had a small $10 million production budget, and it has performed much better than the third film in the series did. Apparently, people are still hungry for this type of horror movie.
THE BILLION DOLLAR CLUB — 2018 Edition:
Well, we obviously have no members of this club as of yet. But if Black Panther becomes as popular as Wonder Woman was last year, then I think it actually has a chance of becoming the first film in this year’s billion dollar club.
– Jeffrey Rex Bertelsen