This time around I’m changing things up. Last time, my Best Picture predictions were listed in alphabetical order. However, now in October, I’m ready to start ranking them on their chances of getting the golden statue in early 2018. At the end of my listing of the ten predicted nominations, I’ll discuss a number of films that aren’t getting in — including a Weinstein production or two.
Predicted Best Picture Nominations – As of October 2017:
#1 — THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI (Fox Searchlight) — Directed by Martin McDonagh
The winner of the Toronto International Film Festival People’s Choice Award almost always gets into the Best Picture category. I think this might be McDonagh’s year.
#2 — THE SHAPE OF WATER (Fox Searchlight) — Directed by Guillermo Del Toro
I can’t wait to see this movie. There is almost always something magical about Guillermo Del Toro’s films and I think The Shape of Water will be the most magical Best Picture nominated movie this year.
#3 — CALL ME BY YOUR NAME (Sony Pictures Classics) — Directed by Luca Guadagnino
Sure, it may still end up with the award, but I’ve dropped it a couple of spots. It still has a chance to get the statue (and I can’t wait to see it), but I think its time as the frontrunner has come to an end.
#4 — DUNKIRK (Warner Bros. Pictures) — Directed by Christopher Nolan
Dunkirk is still one of my favorite movies of the year (Blade Runner 2049 is at #1 for me, right now), and I would love to see Christopher Nolan finally get his moment to shine on the Oscar stage.
#5 — THE POST (20th Century Fox) — Directed by Steven Spielberg
Still. No. Trailer. — Look, we don’t know if it’ll be any good, but until I get a whiff of this movie being underwhelming, I’ll keep predicting it to be in the Best Picture category.
#6 — DARKEST HOUR (Focus Features) — Directed by Joe Wright
A part of me really hopes one theater, or two, accidentally show Chris Gorak’s The Darkest Hour. Anyway, I think Gary Oldman is getting the Best Actor award, but I think Dunkirk is a stronger war movie candidate to win Best Picture, even though I haven’t seen Joe Wright’s film.
#7 — LADY BIRD (A24) — Directed by Greta Gerwig
I still feel confident and comfortable taking a chance on Lady Bird, Saoirse Ronan, and Greta Gerwig, even though I haven’t seen it. A lot of things have changed since my last round of Best Picture predictions, but this isn’t one of those things.
#8 — I, TONYA (Neon) — Directed by Craig Gillespie
No, this trailer doesn’t really look like a Best Picture contender, per se. But people are raving about this movie and, especially, Margot Robbie’s performance in it.
#9 — GET OUT (Universal Pictures) — Directed by Jordan Peele
It’s getting in. It’s getting that Best Picture nomination. Every day we get closer to the Oscars, I become more confident.
#10 — PHANTOM THREAD (Focus Features) — Directed by Paul Thomas Anderson
To tell you the truth, The Florida Project was at #10 just a few minutes before I pressed ‘publish’ on WordPress. But I’m going to push Paul Thomas Anderson’s Phantom Thread into the top ten for now, even though I haven’t seen either of the two films.
Other Potential Contenders:
- Battle of the Sexes — directed by Jonathan Drayton and Valerie Faris.
- Blade Runner 2049 — directed by Denis Villeneuve.
- Hostiles — directed by Scott Cooper.
- Mudbound — directed by Dee Rees.
- The Big Sick — directed by Michael Showalter.
- The Florida Project — directed by Sean Baker.
- The Greatest Showman — directed by Michael Gracey.
- Star Wars: Episode VIII – The Last Jedi — directed by Rian Johnson.
- Stronger — directed by David Gordon Green.
- The Killing of a Sacred Deer — directed by Yorgos Lanthimos.
- Wonder — directed by Stephen Chbosky.
- Wonder Woman — directed by Patty Jenkins.
Okay, so, I should probably comment on a few film that are no longer listed as potential contenders. Well, first off, goodbye The Current War. I thought the trailer looked cool, but it’s not getting in. The Weinstein allegations along with negative early reactions to the film have killed the movie’s chances. Due to the Weinstein allegations I’ve also taken out Wind River.
I’ve also removed two movies from consideration that I, honestly, love. Baby Driver and War for the Planet of the Apes are two of my favorite movies of the year, but I don’t think they have any chance of getting in, unfortunately. I still have hope for Blade Runner 2049, though.
Due to negative or middling reactions to the films, I’ve also removed films like Downsizing and Roman J. Israel, Esq. Now, Detroit is also nowhere to be seen, not because of negative reviews, but because I just don’t see much love for the film anywhere.
LAST WEEK: 2018 Movie Preview – Special Features #7
NEXT WEEK: TBD
– Jeffrey Rex Bertelsen