Box Office Predictions – July 2017

Box Office Prediction

June gave us the first great DC Cinematic Universe film – Wonder Woman – as well as yet another chapter in Michael Bay’s Transformers series of films. In July, Marvel Studios has teamed up with Sony to bring us Spider-Man: Homecoming, before Christopher Nolan’s first war film – Dunkirk – hits theaters. 

NORTH AMERICAN OPENING WEEKEND PREDICTIONS:

  • Spider-Man: Homecoming – Sony / Columbia – July 7th, 2017 – $107 million
  • War for the Planet of the Apes – Fox – July 14th, 2017 – $60 million
  • Dunkirk – Warner Bros. – July 21st, 2017 – $34 million
  • The Emoji Movie – Columbia – July 28th, 2017 – $30 million

“It’s just another reboot.” — I’ve heard that line a lot, when people have discussed the chance to see another Spider-Man movie. While most people liked Andrew Garfield in the role, his Spider-Man films weren’t particularly well-loved, and I’d even say that there hasn’t been a good Spider-Man solo film since Sam Raimi’s Spider-Man 2 back in 2004.

I’ll be seeing Spider-Man: Homecoming in a couple of hours and I am very much excited about it. He is probably my favorite superhero of all-time, but I’m not sure it’ll get as close to $120 million as I know some people have said it will.

I think War for the Planet of the Apes is going to have a tough time this summer, I’m just not sure people are excited for it. Nobody is excited about The Emoji Movie, but when it comes out it’ll have been a long time since Despicable Me 3, so maybe young kids will love the film.

I am worried about Dunkirk, though. Although Christopher Nolan is a great director, I don’t think the marketing for it has been particularly great, and I’m not sure a big portion of American audiences will want to watch a World War Two-movie that doesn’t include American soldiers.

Box Office Report

MAJOR OPENING WEEKENDS – JUNE:

  • Captain Underpants – 20th Century Fox – June 2nd, 2017 – $23 million (-7)
  • Wonder Woman – Warner Bros. – June 2nd, 2017 – $103 million (+16)
  • The Mummy – Universal – June 9th, 2017 – $31 million (-9)
  • Cars 3 – Disney – June 16th, 2017 – $53 million (-2)
  • Rough Night – Sony/Columbia – June 16th, 2017 – $8 million (-17)
  • Transformers: The Last Knight – Paramount – June 21st, 2017 – $44 million (-51)
  • Despicable Me 3 – Universal – June 30th, 2017 – $72 million (-28)

It was a great surprise to see Wonder Woman have a remarkably strong opening weekend. In fact, it is the only ‘positive surprise’ of the month. It actually had a stronger opening weekend than the critically acclaimed Captain America: The Winter Soldier, which I really did not see coming.

But that was the one happy surprise of the month. Rough Night, Despicable Me 3, and Transformers: The Last Knight all underperformed. I stopped thinking about the Transformers films after Shia LaBeouf left the franchise, and it seems like North American audiences are starting to lose interest as well.

THE BILLION DOLLAR CLUB:

  1. Beauty and the Beast – Disney – $1,259 billion
  2. The Fate of the Furious – Universal – $1,238 billion
    Box office totals as of July 6th, 2017

Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2 has slowed down and there is absolutely no chance that it will become a member of the Billion Dollar Club. Neither will Wonder Woman, even though it has had a fantastic month.

Although I’ve previously been pretty optimistic for Despicable Me 3, the numbers for it thus far are making me pessimistic right about now. Now, what about Transformers: The Last Knight? Both Dark of the Moon and Age of Extinction made a billion dollars worldwide, but The Last Knight isn’t doing so well in North America.

– Jeffrey Rex

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