Box Office Predictions – July 2016

Box Office Prediction

NORTH AMERICAN OPENING WEEKEND PREDICTIONS:

  • Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates – Fox – July 8th, 2016 – $10-15 million
  • The Secret Life of Pets – Universal – July 8th, 2016 – $70-75 million
  • Ghostbusters – Sony/Columbia – July 15th, 2016 – $40-50 million
  • Star Trek Beyond – Paramount – July 22nd, 2016 – $55-60 million
  • Jason Bourne – Universal – July 29th, 2016 – $70-75 million

Is Star Trek Beyond going to be successful? 

Obviously, I cannot base this on the quality of the film (seeing as I haven’t seen it, and there are no reviews out for the film). But for a while now, I’ve been worried about this film. I really, really like Star Trek (not nearly as much as I love Star Wars, but I really like the Star Trek-franchise). I think I’m going to enjoy it, but it doesn’t feel like there’s any hype for it.

This will be the first of the rebooted Star Trek films not to be directed by J. J. Abrams. And say what you will about Abrams (I’m a fan), he’s pretty much become king of the nerds after The Force Awakens. Also, have any one group responded well to the trailers? The sabotage-trailer was received poorly, and the new Rihanna-trailer isn’t perfect either (although I much prefer the Rihanna-trailer).

So that is why I’m right now predicting that it’ll only open to about $55 million at the North American box office. I really hope I’m wrong, if the film is as good as I hope it is. But right now it seems like general audiences have fallen out of love with Star Trek, or at least forgotten what makes it great.

 

Box Office Report

For the first time ever on Box Office Predictions, I’ve made a Box Office Report for the month of June 2016. What this means, at least for this series of posts, is that I’ll be looking at select films and how they opened in North America. Then I’ll comment on their performances, and compare the results to my predictions for the month.

  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows – Paramount – June 3rd, 2016 – $35,316,382
  • The Conjuring 2 Warner Bros. – June 10th, 2016 – $40,406,314
  • WarcraftUniversal – June 10th, 2016 – $24,166,110
  • Finding DoryDisney/Pixar – June 17th, 2016 – $135,060,273
  • Independence Day: Resurgence – Fox – June 24th, 2016 – $41,039,944

Green means that it made more money than I predicted. Red means that it made less. Blue means that I got the prediction right.

The newest TMNT film underperformed, and that’s a shame. There are a lot of fans of the franchise, and I really thought this film would do really well. I didn’t mind the first film – better than I thought it would be – but I haven’t seen Out of the Shadows yet, so I can’t really comment on the quality of the film. The Conjuring 2 did really well. Horror films in a big franchise almost always do well, so it isn’t a surprise. Thankfully, the sequel was also pretty great.

So, Finding Dory overperformed a bit, but considering it got great reviews and the fact that people love the first one, it is hardly a surprise. Both Warcraft and Independence Day: Resurgence underperformed. Granted, Warcraft has done really well in China, but we’ll have to see if that saves the franchise. Resurgence really shocks me though. Even though i hated the film, I still thought it would do really well. Sorry, Fox.

BOP Following Films

In Following Films, I’ll note the current worldwide box office total for films that I have chosen to follow. If you want me to follow a film’s numbers, then ask in the comments below. Every time a new film is added to the list, I’ll explain why below.

  • Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice – $872,662,631
  • Captain America: Civil War – $1,149,957,447
  • Deadpool – $783,772,219
  • Independence Day: Resurgence – $252,576,182
  • Warcraft – $422,096,490
  • X-Men: Apocalypse – $529,169,523

I automatically follow every big-budget superhero movie released by Fox, Warner Brothers, Sony, or Disney, due to the fact that I write about both DC Comics and Marvel each and every month – so that explains why 4 of the films are being followed. Both Warcraft and Independence Day: Resurgence are films that I did not really like, but I want to see if they do well enough to get a sequel.

– I’m Jeffrey Rex

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