Box Office Predictions – Weekend of July 31, 2015

Box Office 2015

The following is a new weekly post on I’m Jeffrey Rex, wherein Jeffrey predicts the coming weekend numbers at the box office for North America.

Somehow Ant-Man kept the number one spot last weekend, but that will probably be the last weekend win for Marvel’s Ant-Man. This week the Marvel superhero will battle two famous franchises. Surely, Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation & Vacation will take down Ant-Man.

LAST WEEKEND’S NUMBERS

  1. Ant-Man (-56.5%) – $24,909,332
  2. Pixels (1st Wknd) – $24,011,616
  3. Minions (-53.5%) – $22,933,960
  4. Trainwreck (-42.6%) – $17,281,950
  5. Southpaw (1st Wknd) – $16,701,294

In terms of money Ant-Man, Minions, and Trainwreck all did about as good as I had expected. Though I am shocked to learn that Ant-Man beat Pixels, and that Paper Towns had a, compared to the last John Green-film, terrible opening weekend (Not even in the top 5!?).

Now, we need to talk about Adam Sandler. Is he done? What I am asking is: are people tired of Sandler or did people just read the terrible reviews? Pixels, a film that looked like a mash-up of Wreck-It Ralph and Independence Day, made less in its opening weekend than both Grown Ups-films did. To make it worse, Pixels actually made less than Jack and Jill did… This is a fiasco for Sony, Sandler, and Chris Columbus.

WEEKEND PREDICTIONS

  1. Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation (1st Wknd) – $55m
  2. Vacation (1st Wknd) – $24m
  3. Ant-Man – $14m
  4. Minions – $13m
  5. Pixels – $11m

This time Ant-Man will drop down the top 5, but I do think it’ll hang on. No more Southpaw or Trainwreck, though – they won’t last following the introduction of a new action-comedy and a straight-up comedy. Minions and Ant-Man drop down below $20m, and I am intrigued to see what the introduction of Mission: Impossible does to Ant-Man.

After Pixels completely fell through at the box office in wknd no. 1, I’m predicting a gigantic drop-off for the Sandler-led disaster-comedy – I may be overreacting to the disastrous first wknd, but I just don’t trust Sandler after this fiasco. As for Vacation? Well, I’ll be interested to learn whether or not this film does as well as the Dumb and Dumber sequel did last year ($36m). Honestly, I don’t think it will. The Vacation-franchise has not been a strong one since the 1980s, but I still think it’ll make closer to We’re The Millers-like numbers (mid-twenties).

Last, but not least, we have to talk about Tom Cruise. I’m predicting a good opening weekend for the newest installment in the Mission: Impossible franchise, but now we will find out whether or not people still consider Tom Cruise a huge movie star. If this film does not make more than Edge of Tomorrow did ($28m), then it must be a disasterous number for Cruise and the experienced franchise.

What do you predict for this weekend’s North American box office numbers? Am I way off? Sound off in the comments.

I’m Jeffrey Rex

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